KBNA / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 22 · 22:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

12%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 15.8¢Risks 15.75u

ICONNO 84.2¢Risks 84.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +84.25u · ICON −84.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T22:18:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-16T07:22:07+00:00	42.1%	50.7%	30.5%	75.1%	43.5%
2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00	42.1%	50.7%	30.5%	75.1%	43.5%
2026-09-16T08:52:39+00:00	42.1%	50.7%	30.5%	75.1%	43.5%
2026-09-16T09:37:49+00:00	42.1%	50.7%	30.5%	75.1%	43.5%
2026-09-16T10:22:59+00:00	42.1%	50.7%	30.5%	75.1%	43.5%
2026-09-16T11:08:06+00:00	42.1%	71.5%	36.0%	75.1%	43.5%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00	42.1%	71.5%	36.0%	75.1%	43.5%
2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00	42.1%	71.5%	36.0%	75.1%	43.5%
2026-09-16T13:23:26+00:00	34.6%	71.5%	36.0%	75.1%	43.5%
2026-09-16T14:09:45+00:00	34.6%	71.5%	36.1%	75.1%	43.5%
2026-09-16T14:54:54+00:00	34.6%	71.5%	36.1%	75.1%	43.5%
2026-09-16T15:40:07+00:00	34.6%	71.5%	36.1%	75.1%	43.5%
2026-09-16T16:25:13+00:00	34.6%	71.5%	36.1%	69.6%	33.8%
2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00	34.6%	71.5%	27.2%	69.6%	33.8%
2026-09-16T17:55:35+00:00	34.6%	71.5%	27.2%	69.6%	33.8%
2026-09-16T18:40:45+00:00	34.6%	71.5%	27.2%	69.6%	33.8%
2026-09-16T19:25:50+00:00	32.0%	71.5%	27.2%	18.6%	33.8%
2026-09-16T20:10:56+00:00	32.0%	71.5%	27.2%	18.6%	33.8%
2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00	32.0%	71.5%	27.2%	18.6%	33.8%
2026-09-16T21:41:05+00:00	32.0%	71.5%	27.2%	18.6%	33.8%
2026-09-16T22:26:10+00:00	32.0%	71.5%	27.2%	18.6%	33.8%
2026-09-16T23:11:18+00:00	32.6%	79.1%	16.2%	12.0%	33.8%
2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00	32.6%	79.1%	16.2%	12.0%	33.8%
2026-09-17T00:41:33+00:00	32.6%	79.1%	16.2%	12.0%	33.8%
2026-09-17T01:26:47+00:00	23.5%	79.1%	16.2%	12.0%	33.8%
2026-09-17T02:12:06+00:00	23.5%	79.1%	16.2%	12.0%	33.8%
2026-09-17T02:57:15+00:00	23.5%	79.1%	16.2%	12.0%	33.8%
2026-09-17T03:42:32+00:00	23.5%	79.1%	16.2%	12.0%	33.8%
2026-09-17T04:27:40+00:00	23.5%	79.1%	16.2%	12.0%	50.6%
2026-09-17T05:12:46+00:00	23.5%	79.1%	15.2%	12.0%	50.6%
2026-09-17T05:57:53+00:00	23.5%	79.1%	15.2%	12.0%	50.6%
2026-09-17T06:43:01+00:00	23.5%	79.1%	15.2%	12.0%	50.6%
2026-09-17T07:28:05+00:00	10.5%	79.1%	15.2%	12.0%	50.6%
2026-09-17T08:13:10+00:00	10.5%	79.1%	15.2%	12.0%	50.6%
2026-09-17T08:58:15+00:00	10.5%	79.1%	15.2%	12.0%	50.6%
2026-09-17T09:43:23+00:00	10.5%	79.1%	15.2%	12.0%	50.6%
2026-09-17T10:28:37+00:00	10.5%	79.1%	15.2%	43.4%	50.6%
2026-09-17T11:14:04+00:00	10.5%	48.3%	11.8%	43.4%	50.6%
2026-09-17T11:59:12+00:00	10.5%	48.3%	11.8%	43.4%	50.6%
2026-09-17T12:44:17+00:00	10.5%	48.3%	11.8%	43.4%	50.6%
2026-09-17T13:29:22+00:00	0.4%	48.3%	11.8%	43.4%	50.6%
2026-09-17T14:15:36+00:00	0.3%	48.3%	11.8%	43.4%	50.6%
2026-09-17T15:00:48+00:00	0.3%	48.3%	11.8%	43.4%	50.6%
2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:00	0.3%	48.3%	11.8%	43.4%	50.6%
2026-09-17T16:31:11+00:00	0.3%	48.3%	11.8%	43.4%	18.1%
2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:00	0.3%	48.3%	9.0%	43.4%	18.1%
2026-09-17T18:01:24+00:00	0.3%	48.3%	9.0%	43.4%	18.1%
2026-09-17T18:46:33+00:00	0.3%	48.3%	9.0%	43.4%	18.1%
2026-09-17T19:31:38+00:00	3.4%	48.3%	9.0%	43.4%	18.1%
2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00	3.4%	48.3%	9.0%	43.4%	18.1%
2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00	3.4%	48.3%	9.0%	43.4%	18.1%
2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00	3.4%	48.3%	9.0%	43.4%	18.1%
2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:00	3.4%	48.3%	9.0%	8.0%	18.1%
2026-09-17T23:17:04+00:00	3.4%	48.3%	6.7%	8.0%	18.1%
2026-09-18T00:02:09+00:00	3.4%	48.3%	6.7%	8.0%	18.1%
2026-09-18T00:47:16+00:00	3.4%	48.3%	6.7%	8.0%	18.1%
2026-09-18T01:32:22+00:00	5.1%	48.3%	6.7%	8.0%	18.1%
2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00	5.1%	48.3%	6.7%	8.0%	18.1%
2026-09-18T03:02:40+00:00	5.1%	48.3%	6.7%	8.0%	18.1%
2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:00	5.1%	48.3%	6.7%	8.0%	18.1%
2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:00	5.1%	48.3%	6.7%	8.0%	2.0%
2026-09-18T05:18:13+00:00	5.1%	48.3%	6.7%	8.0%	2.0%
2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00	5.1%	48.3%	6.7%	8.0%	2.0%
2026-09-18T06:48:26+00:00	5.1%	48.3%	6.7%	8.0%	2.0%
2026-09-18T07:33:40+00:00	3.5%	48.3%	6.7%	1.5%	2.0%
2026-09-18T08:19:07+00:00	3.5%	48.3%	6.7%	1.5%	2.0%
2026-09-18T09:04:14+00:00	3.5%	48.3%	6.7%	1.5%	2.0%
2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:00	3.5%	48.3%	6.7%	1.5%	2.0%
2026-09-18T10:34:35+00:00	3.5%	48.3%	6.7%	1.5%	2.0%
2026-09-18T11:20:03+00:00	3.5%	24.6%	6.7%	1.5%	2.0%
2026-09-18T12:05:14+00:00	3.5%	24.6%	6.7%	1.5%	2.0%
2026-09-18T12:50:19+00:00	3.5%	24.6%	6.7%	1.5%	2.0%
2026-09-18T13:35:25+00:00	4.0%	24.6%	6.7%	1.5%	2.0%
2026-09-18T14:21:55+00:00	4.0%	24.6%	6.7%	1.5%	2.0%
2026-09-18T15:07:09+00:00	4.0%	24.2%	6.7%	1.5%	2.0%
2026-09-18T15:52:25+00:00	4.0%	24.2%	6.7%	1.5%	2.0%
2026-09-18T16:37:30+00:00	4.0%	24.2%	6.7%	1.5%	7.1%
2026-09-18T17:22:36+00:00	4.0%	24.2%	6.7%	1.5%	7.1%
2026-09-18T18:07:41+00:00	4.0%	24.2%	6.7%	1.5%	7.1%
2026-09-18T18:52:50+00:00	4.0%	24.2%	6.7%	1.5%	7.1%
2026-09-18T19:37:55+00:00	1.9%	24.2%	6.7%	1.5%	7.1%
2026-09-18T20:23:00+00:00	1.9%	24.2%	6.7%	1.5%	7.1%
2026-09-18T21:08:04+00:00	1.9%	24.2%	6.7%	1.5%	7.1%
2026-09-18T21:53:09+00:00	1.9%	24.2%	6.7%	1.5%	7.1%
2026-09-18T22:38:15+00:00	1.9%	24.2%	6.7%	12.9%	7.1%
2026-09-18T23:23:20+00:00	1.9%	25.2%	6.7%	12.9%	7.1%
2026-09-19T00:08:25+00:00	1.9%	25.2%	6.7%	12.9%	7.1%
2026-09-19T00:53:32+00:00	1.9%	25.2%	6.7%	12.9%	7.1%
2026-09-19T01:38:37+00:00	0.7%	25.2%	6.7%	12.9%	7.1%
2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:00	0.7%	25.2%	6.7%	12.9%	7.1%
2026-09-19T03:08:55+00:00	0.7%	25.2%	6.7%	12.9%	7.1%
2026-09-19T03:54:13+00:00	0.7%	25.2%	6.7%	12.9%	7.1%
2026-09-19T04:39:19+00:00	0.7%	25.2%	6.7%	12.9%	2.9%
2026-09-19T05:24:24+00:00	0.7%	25.2%	6.7%	12.9%	2.9%
2026-09-19T06:09:28+00:00	0.7%	25.2%	6.7%	12.9%	2.9%
2026-09-19T06:54:37+00:00	0.7%	25.2%	6.7%	12.9%	2.9%
2026-09-19T07:39:53+00:00	2.6%	25.2%	6.7%	11.8%	2.9%
2026-09-19T08:25:24+00:00	2.6%	25.2%	6.7%	11.8%	2.9%
2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00	2.6%	25.2%	6.7%	11.8%	2.9%
2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00	2.6%	25.2%	6.7%	11.8%	2.9%
2026-09-19T10:40:46+00:00	2.6%	25.2%	6.7%	11.8%	2.9%
2026-09-19T11:25:54+00:00	2.6%	27.4%	6.7%	11.8%	2.9%
2026-09-19T12:11:04+00:00	2.6%	27.4%	6.7%	11.8%	2.9%
2026-09-19T12:56:08+00:00	2.6%	27.4%	6.7%	11.8%	2.9%
2026-09-19T13:41:14+00:00	1.2%	27.4%	6.7%	11.8%	2.9%
2026-09-19T14:27:50+00:00	1.2%	27.3%	6.7%	11.8%	2.9%
2026-09-19T15:13:01+00:00	1.2%	27.4%	6.7%	11.8%	2.9%
2026-09-19T15:58:14+00:00	1.2%	27.4%	6.7%	11.8%	2.9%
2026-09-19T16:43:19+00:00	1.2%	27.4%	6.7%	11.8%	0.6%
2026-09-19T17:28:24+00:00	1.2%	27.4%	6.7%	11.8%	0.6%
2026-09-19T18:13:29+00:00	1.2%	27.4%	6.7%	11.8%	0.6%
2026-09-19T18:58:38+00:00	1.2%	27.4%	6.7%	11.8%	0.6%
2026-09-19T19:43:43+00:00	2.7%	27.4%	6.7%	2.0%	0.6%
2026-09-19T20:28:48+00:00	2.7%	27.4%	6.7%	2.0%	0.6%
2026-09-19T21:13:52+00:00	2.7%	27.4%	6.7%	2.0%	0.6%
2026-09-19T21:58:57+00:00	2.7%	27.4%	6.7%	2.0%	0.6%
2026-09-19T22:44:03+00:00	2.7%	27.4%	6.7%	2.0%	0.6%
2026-09-19T23:29:08+00:00	2.7%	28.1%	6.7%	2.0%	0.6%
2026-09-20T00:14:14+00:00	2.7%	28.1%	6.7%	2.0%	0.6%
2026-09-20T00:59:23+00:00	2.7%	28.1%	6.7%	2.0%	0.6%
2026-09-20T01:44:30+00:00	7.9%	28.1%	6.7%	2.0%	0.6%
2026-09-20T02:29:37+00:00	7.9%	28.1%	6.7%	2.0%	0.6%
2026-09-20T03:14:46+00:00	7.9%	28.1%	6.7%	2.0%	0.6%
2026-09-20T04:00:03+00:00	7.9%	28.1%	6.7%	2.0%	0.6%
2026-09-20T04:45:09+00:00	7.9%	28.1%	6.7%	2.0%	0.7%
2026-09-20T05:30:14+00:00	7.9%	28.1%	6.7%	2.0%	0.7%
2026-09-20T06:15:19+00:00	7.9%	28.1%	6.7%	2.0%	0.7%
2026-09-20T07:00:27+00:00	7.9%	28.1%	6.7%	2.0%	0.7%
2026-09-20T07:45:42+00:00	12.3%	28.1%	6.7%	14.4%	0.7%
2026-09-20T08:31:12+00:00	12.3%	28.1%	6.7%	14.4%	0.7%
2026-09-20T09:16:17+00:00	12.3%	28.1%	6.7%	14.4%	0.7%
2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00	12.3%	28.1%	6.7%	14.4%	0.7%
2026-09-20T10:46:26+00:00	12.3%	28.1%	6.7%	14.4%	0.7%
2026-09-20T11:31:33+00:00	12.3%	29.4%	6.7%	14.4%	0.7%
2026-09-20T12:16:52+00:00	12.3%	29.4%	6.7%	14.4%	0.7%
2026-09-20T13:01:57+00:00	12.3%	29.4%	6.7%	14.4%	0.7%
2026-09-20T13:47:03+00:00	9.8%	29.4%	6.7%	14.4%	0.7%
2026-09-20T14:33:34+00:00	9.4%	29.5%	6.8%	14.4%	0.7%
2026-09-20T15:18:48+00:00	9.4%	29.9%	6.8%	14.4%	0.7%
2026-09-20T16:04:07+00:00	9.4%	29.9%	6.8%	14.4%	0.7%
2026-09-20T16:49:12+00:00	9.4%	29.9%	6.8%	14.4%	0.4%
2026-09-20T17:34:18+00:00	9.4%	29.9%	6.8%	14.4%	0.4%
2026-09-20T18:19:23+00:00	9.4%	29.9%	6.8%	14.4%	0.4%
2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00	9.4%	29.9%	6.8%	14.4%	0.4%
2026-09-20T19:49:36+00:00	1.9%	29.9%	6.8%	14.4%	0.4%
2026-09-20T20:34:41+00:00	1.9%	29.9%	6.8%	14.4%	0.4%
2026-09-20T21:19:46+00:00	1.9%	29.9%	6.8%	14.4%	0.4%
2026-09-20T22:04:50+00:00	1.9%	29.9%	6.8%	14.4%	0.4%
2026-09-20T22:49:58+00:00	1.9%	29.9%	6.8%	16.5%	0.4%
2026-09-20T23:35:04+00:00	1.9%	30.8%	6.8%	16.5%	0.4%
2026-09-21T00:20:13+00:00	1.9%	30.8%	6.8%	16.5%	0.4%
2026-09-21T01:05:23+00:00	1.9%	30.8%	6.8%	16.5%	0.4%
2026-09-21T01:50:29+00:00	1.5%	30.8%	6.8%	16.5%	0.4%
2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00	1.5%	30.8%	6.8%	16.5%	0.4%
2026-09-21T03:20:45+00:00	1.5%	30.8%	6.8%	16.5%	0.4%
2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:00	1.5%	30.8%	6.8%	16.5%	0.4%
2026-09-21T04:51:09+00:00	1.5%	30.8%	6.8%	16.5%	0.0%
2026-09-21T05:36:17+00:00	1.5%	30.8%	6.8%	16.5%	0.0%
2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00	1.5%	30.8%	6.8%	16.5%	0.0%
2026-09-21T07:06:30+00:00	1.5%	30.8%	6.8%	16.5%	0.0%
2026-09-21T16:55:51+00:00	0.6%	21.8%	6.8%	10.4%	0.0%
2026-09-21T17:40:57+00:00	0.6%	21.8%	6.8%	10.4%	0.0%
2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00	0.6%	21.8%	6.8%	10.4%	0.0%
2026-09-21T19:11:11+00:00	0.6%	21.8%	6.8%	10.4%	0.0%
2026-09-22T07:59:08+00:00	0.2%	21.8%	6.8%	12.0%	0.4%
2026-09-22T08:44:41+00:00	0.2%	21.8%	6.8%	12.0%	0.4%
2026-09-22T09:29:46+00:00	0.2%	21.8%	6.8%	12.0%	0.4%
2026-09-22T10:14:51+00:00	0.2%	21.8%	6.8%	12.0%	0.4%
2026-09-22T11:00:00+00:00	0.2%	31.5%	6.8%	12.0%	0.4%
2026-09-22T11:45:10+00:00	0.2%	31.5%	6.8%	12.0%	0.4%
2026-09-22T12:30:15+00:00	0.2%	31.5%	6.8%	12.0%	0.4%
2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:00	0.2%	31.5%	6.8%	12.0%	0.4%
2026-09-22T14:00:28+00:00	0.2%	31.5%	6.9%	12.0%	0.4%
2026-09-22T14:47:13+00:00	0.2%	31.5%	6.9%	12.0%	0.4%
2026-09-22T15:32:22+00:00	0.2%	31.4%	6.9%	12.0%	0.4%
2026-09-22T16:17:40+00:00	0.2%	31.4%	6.9%	12.0%	0.4%
2026-09-22T17:02:45+00:00	0.2%	31.4%	6.9%	12.0%	0.1%
2026-09-22T17:47:52+00:00	0.2%	31.4%	6.9%	12.0%	0.1%
2026-09-22T18:32:56+00:00	0.2%	31.4%	6.9%	12.0%	0.1%
2026-09-22T19:18:05+00:00	0.2%	31.4%	6.9%	12.0%	0.1%
2026-09-22T20:03:10+00:00	0.2%	31.4%	6.9%	12.0%	0.1%
2026-09-22T20:48:15+00:00	0.2%	31.4%	6.9%	12.0%	0.1%
2026-09-22T21:33:22+00:00	0.2%	31.4%	6.9%	12.0%	0.1%
2026-09-22T22:18:31+00:00	0.2%	31.4%	6.9%	12.0%	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	31%	88.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	85.1°F	3.8°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	82.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	84.0°F	3.6°F	2026-09-22 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-22 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	77.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	78.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260923-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 16 · 07:22 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 90°F+ · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗