— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
66¢
nbm
56¢
ndfd
56¢
eps
37¢
wn2
21¢
hres
19¢
icon
11¢
hrrr
11¢
aifs
6¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F6¢
78–79°F18¢
80–81°F30¢
82–83°F27¢
84–85°F14¢
86–87°F4¢
88–89°F0¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,158 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.557 vs climatology 9.177.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260924-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-09-20T03:14:46+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape