KBNA / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Sep 24 · 02:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

21%

19%

11%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 21.9¢Risks 21.90u

AIFSNO 78.1¢Risks 78.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +78.10u · AIFS −78.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-20T03:14:46+00:00	18.7%	52.0%	18.4%	37.9%	15.0%
2026-09-20T04:00:03+00:00	18.7%	52.0%	18.4%	37.9%	15.0%
2026-09-20T04:45:09+00:00	18.7%	52.0%	18.4%	37.9%	16.6%
2026-09-20T05:30:14+00:00	18.7%	52.0%	18.4%	37.9%	16.6%
2026-09-20T06:15:19+00:00	18.7%	52.0%	18.4%	37.9%	16.6%
2026-09-20T07:00:27+00:00	18.7%	52.0%	18.4%	37.9%	16.6%
2026-09-20T07:45:42+00:00	23.3%	52.0%	18.4%	66.8%	16.6%
2026-09-20T08:31:12+00:00	23.3%	52.0%	18.4%	66.8%	16.6%
2026-09-20T09:16:17+00:00	23.3%	52.0%	18.4%	66.8%	16.6%
2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00	23.3%	52.0%	18.4%	66.8%	16.6%
2026-09-20T10:46:26+00:00	23.3%	52.0%	18.4%	66.8%	16.6%
2026-09-20T11:31:33+00:00	23.3%	61.1%	18.4%	66.8%	16.6%
2026-09-20T12:16:52+00:00	23.3%	61.1%	18.4%	66.8%	16.6%
2026-09-20T13:01:57+00:00	23.3%	61.1%	18.4%	66.8%	16.6%
2026-09-20T13:47:03+00:00	22.0%	61.1%	18.4%	66.8%	16.6%
2026-09-20T14:33:34+00:00	22.0%	61.1%	18.5%	66.8%	16.6%
2026-09-22T02:42:25+00:00	8.5%	72.7%	18.6%	57.0%	22.8%
2026-09-22T03:27:45+00:00	8.5%	72.7%	18.6%	57.0%	22.8%
2026-09-22T04:12:49+00:00	8.5%	72.7%	18.6%	57.0%	22.8%
2026-09-22T04:57:59+00:00	8.5%	72.7%	18.6%	57.0%	33.5%
2026-09-22T05:43:19+00:00	8.5%	72.7%	18.6%	57.0%	33.5%
2026-09-22T06:28:40+00:00	8.5%	72.7%	18.6%	57.0%	33.5%
2026-09-22T07:13:49+00:00	8.5%	72.7%	18.6%	57.0%	33.5%
2026-09-22T07:59:08+00:00	7.0%	72.7%	18.6%	61.4%	33.5%
2026-09-22T08:44:41+00:00	7.0%	72.7%	18.6%	61.4%	33.5%
2026-09-22T09:29:46+00:00	7.0%	72.7%	18.6%	61.4%	33.5%
2026-09-22T10:14:51+00:00	7.0%	72.7%	18.6%	61.4%	33.5%
2026-09-22T11:00:00+00:00	7.0%	80.4%	18.6%	61.4%	33.5%
2026-09-22T11:45:10+00:00	7.0%	80.4%	18.6%	61.4%	33.5%
2026-09-22T12:30:15+00:00	7.0%	80.4%	18.6%	61.4%	33.5%
2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:00	7.0%	80.4%	18.6%	61.4%	33.5%
2026-09-22T14:00:28+00:00	9.5%	80.3%	18.1%	61.5%	33.5%
2026-09-22T14:47:13+00:00	9.5%	80.3%	18.1%	61.5%	33.5%
2026-09-22T15:32:22+00:00	9.5%	79.6%	18.1%	61.5%	33.5%
2026-09-22T16:17:40+00:00	9.5%	79.6%	18.1%	61.5%	33.5%
2026-09-22T17:02:45+00:00	9.5%	79.6%	18.1%	61.5%	37.7%
2026-09-22T17:47:52+00:00	9.5%	79.6%	18.1%	61.5%	37.7%
2026-09-22T18:32:56+00:00	9.5%	79.6%	18.1%	61.5%	37.7%
2026-09-22T19:18:05+00:00	9.5%	79.6%	18.1%	61.5%	37.7%
2026-09-22T20:03:10+00:00	8.7%	79.6%	18.1%	61.5%	37.7%
2026-09-22T20:48:15+00:00	8.7%	79.6%	18.1%	61.5%	37.7%
2026-09-22T21:33:22+00:00	8.7%	79.6%	18.1%	61.5%	37.7%
2026-09-22T22:18:31+00:00	8.7%	79.6%	18.1%	61.5%	37.7%
2026-09-22T23:03:38+00:00	8.7%	80.5%	19.0%	61.5%	37.7%
2026-09-22T23:48:44+00:00	8.7%	80.5%	19.0%	61.5%	37.7%
2026-09-23T00:33:50+00:00	8.7%	80.5%	19.0%	61.5%	37.7%
2026-09-23T01:18:58+00:00	8.7%	80.5%	19.0%	61.5%	37.7%
2026-09-23T02:04:05+00:00	9.5%	80.5%	19.0%	61.5%	37.7%
2026-09-23T14:54:18+00:00	7.0%	37.5%	18.9%	12.6%	11.2%
2026-09-23T15:39:30+00:00	7.0%	37.4%	18.9%	12.6%	11.2%
2026-09-23T16:24:37+00:00	7.0%	37.4%	18.9%	12.6%	11.2%
2026-09-23T17:09:47+00:00	7.0%	37.4%	19.7%	12.6%	11.2%
2026-09-23T17:54:55+00:00	7.0%	37.4%	19.7%	12.6%	11.2%
2026-09-23T18:40:00+00:00	7.0%	37.4%	19.7%	12.6%	11.2%
2026-09-23T19:25:12+00:00	8.4%	37.4%	19.7%	18.9%	11.2%
2026-09-23T20:10:19+00:00	8.4%	37.4%	19.7%	18.9%	11.2%
2026-09-23T20:55:25+00:00	8.4%	37.4%	19.7%	18.9%	11.2%
2026-09-23T21:40:30+00:00	8.4%	37.4%	19.7%	18.9%	11.2%
2026-09-23T22:25:36+00:00	8.4%	37.4%	19.7%	18.9%	11.2%
2026-09-23T23:10:42+00:00	8.4%	37.4%	21.4%	18.9%	11.2%
2026-09-23T23:55:48+00:00	8.4%	37.4%	21.4%	18.9%	11.2%
2026-09-24T00:40:54+00:00	8.4%	37.4%	21.4%	18.9%	11.2%
2026-09-24T01:26:05+00:00	6.4%	37.4%	21.4%	18.9%	11.2%
2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00	6.4%	37.4%	21.4%	18.9%	11.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-23 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	82.6°F	2.8°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	80.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	80.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
ICON	11%	79.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	77.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260924-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 20 · 03:14 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 84°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗