— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
68¢
hres
65¢
icon
64¢
nbm
53¢
aifs
34¢
wn2
30¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F7¢
78–79°F21¢
80–81°F32¢
82–83°F26¢
84–85°F10¢
86–87°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,158 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.557 vs climatology 9.177.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260925-TMAX-GE81 · opened 2026-09-18T11:20:03+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape