KBNA / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Sep 19 · 02:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

65%

64%

34%

30%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 49.2¢Risks 49.15u

WN2NO 50.8¢Risks 50.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +50.85u · WN2 −50.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-18T11:20:03+00:00	42.1%	66.9%	30.5%	28.6%	14.8%
2026-09-18T12:05:15+00:00	42.1%	66.9%	30.5%	28.6%	14.8%
2026-09-18T12:50:19+00:00	42.1%	66.9%	30.5%	28.6%	14.8%
2026-09-18T13:35:25+00:00	42.1%	66.9%	30.5%	28.6%	14.8%
2026-09-18T14:21:55+00:00	41.4%	66.9%	30.5%	28.7%	14.8%
2026-09-18T15:07:09+00:00	41.4%	66.9%	30.5%	28.7%	14.8%
2026-09-18T15:52:25+00:00	41.4%	66.9%	30.5%	28.7%	14.8%
2026-09-18T16:37:30+00:00	41.4%	66.9%	30.5%	28.7%	64.4%
2026-09-18T17:22:36+00:00	41.4%	66.9%	30.5%	28.7%	64.4%
2026-09-18T18:07:41+00:00	41.4%	66.9%	30.5%	28.7%	64.4%
2026-09-18T18:52:50+00:00	41.4%	66.9%	30.5%	28.7%	64.4%
2026-09-18T19:37:55+00:00	35.3%	66.9%	30.5%	28.7%	64.4%
2026-09-18T20:23:00+00:00	35.3%	66.9%	30.5%	28.7%	64.4%
2026-09-18T21:08:04+00:00	35.3%	66.9%	30.5%	28.7%	64.4%
2026-09-18T21:53:09+00:00	35.3%	66.9%	30.5%	28.7%	64.4%
2026-09-18T22:38:15+00:00	35.3%	66.9%	30.5%	65.0%	64.4%
2026-09-18T23:23:20+00:00	35.3%	67.8%	30.5%	65.0%	64.4%
2026-09-19T00:08:25+00:00	35.3%	67.8%	30.5%	65.0%	64.4%
2026-09-19T00:53:32+00:00	35.3%	67.8%	30.5%	65.0%	64.4%
2026-09-19T01:38:37+00:00	33.9%	67.8%	30.5%	65.0%	64.4%
2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:00	33.9%	67.8%	30.5%	65.0%	64.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	68%	82.3°F	3.9°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	82.9°F	6.2°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	64%	84.1°F	9.8°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	81.0°F	7.6°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	78.2°F	5.5°F	2026-09-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	77.9°F	5.1°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260925-TMAX-GE81
Opened Sep 18 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 81°F · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗