— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
63¢
nbm
56¢
ndfd
55¢
aifs
37¢
hres
30¢
icon
10¢
wn2
8¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F6¢
76–77°F14¢
78–79°F24¢
80–81°F26¢
82–83°F18¢
84–85°F8¢
86–87°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 13,060 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.947 vs climatology 9.176.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260926-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-09-19T11:25:54+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape