KBNA / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Sep 24 · 02:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

37%

30%

10%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 35.2¢Risks 35.20u

WN2NO 64.8¢Risks 64.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +64.80u · WN2 −64.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-19T11:25:54+00:00	52.2%	62.0%	26.4%	45.5%	33.7%
2026-09-19T12:11:04+00:00	52.2%	62.0%	26.4%	45.5%	33.7%
2026-09-19T12:56:08+00:00	52.2%	62.0%	26.4%	45.5%	33.7%
2026-09-19T13:41:14+00:00	45.0%	62.0%	26.4%	45.5%	33.7%
2026-09-19T14:27:50+00:00	45.0%	62.0%	26.4%	45.5%	33.7%
2026-09-19T15:13:01+00:00	45.0%	62.0%	26.4%	45.5%	33.7%
2026-09-19T15:58:14+00:00	45.0%	62.0%	26.4%	45.5%	33.7%
2026-09-19T16:43:19+00:00	45.0%	62.0%	26.4%	45.5%	60.1%
2026-09-19T17:28:24+00:00	45.0%	62.0%	26.4%	45.5%	60.1%
2026-09-19T18:13:29+00:00	45.0%	62.0%	26.4%	45.5%	60.1%
2026-09-19T18:58:38+00:00	45.0%	62.0%	26.4%	45.5%	60.1%
2026-09-19T19:43:43+00:00	43.6%	62.0%	26.4%	40.5%	60.1%
2026-09-19T20:28:48+00:00	43.6%	62.0%	26.4%	40.5%	60.1%
2026-09-19T21:13:52+00:00	43.6%	62.0%	26.4%	40.5%	60.1%
2026-09-19T21:58:57+00:00	43.6%	62.0%	26.4%	40.5%	60.1%
2026-09-19T22:44:03+00:00	43.6%	62.0%	26.4%	40.5%	60.1%
2026-09-19T23:29:08+00:00	43.6%	63.1%	26.4%	40.5%	60.1%
2026-09-20T00:14:14+00:00	43.6%	63.1%	26.4%	40.5%	60.1%
2026-09-20T00:59:23+00:00	43.6%	63.1%	26.4%	40.5%	60.1%
2026-09-20T01:44:30+00:00	42.1%	63.1%	26.4%	40.5%	60.1%
2026-09-20T02:29:37+00:00	42.1%	63.1%	26.4%	40.5%	60.1%
2026-09-20T15:18:48+00:00	41.8%	67.5%	26.5%	41.6%	70.0%
2026-09-20T16:04:07+00:00	41.8%	67.5%	26.5%	41.6%	70.0%
2026-09-20T16:49:12+00:00	41.8%	67.5%	26.5%	41.6%	55.8%
2026-09-20T17:34:18+00:00	41.8%	67.5%	26.5%	41.6%	55.8%
2026-09-20T18:19:23+00:00	41.8%	67.5%	26.5%	41.6%	55.8%
2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00	41.8%	67.5%	26.5%	41.6%	55.8%
2026-09-20T19:49:36+00:00	23.2%	67.5%	26.5%	41.6%	55.8%
2026-09-20T20:34:41+00:00	23.2%	67.5%	26.5%	41.6%	55.8%
2026-09-20T21:19:46+00:00	23.2%	67.5%	26.5%	41.6%	55.8%
2026-09-20T22:04:50+00:00	23.2%	67.5%	26.5%	41.6%	55.8%
2026-09-20T22:49:58+00:00	23.2%	67.5%	26.5%	47.6%	55.8%
2026-09-20T23:35:05+00:00	23.2%	68.5%	26.5%	47.6%	55.8%
2026-09-21T00:20:13+00:00	23.2%	68.5%	26.5%	47.6%	55.8%
2026-09-21T01:05:23+00:00	23.2%	68.5%	26.5%	47.6%	55.8%
2026-09-21T01:50:29+00:00	16.9%	68.5%	26.5%	47.6%	55.8%
2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00	16.9%	68.5%	26.5%	47.6%	55.8%
2026-09-23T14:54:18+00:00	32.4%	62.9%	8.3%	39.5%	1.4%
2026-09-23T15:39:30+00:00	32.4%	62.9%	8.3%	39.5%	1.4%
2026-09-23T16:24:37+00:00	32.4%	62.9%	8.3%	39.5%	9.9%
2026-09-23T17:09:47+00:00	32.4%	62.9%	5.2%	39.5%	9.9%
2026-09-23T17:54:55+00:00	32.4%	62.9%	5.2%	39.5%	9.9%
2026-09-23T18:40:00+00:00	32.4%	62.9%	5.2%	39.5%	9.9%
2026-09-23T19:25:12+00:00	32.4%	62.9%	5.2%	30.5%	9.9%
2026-09-23T20:10:19+00:00	32.4%	62.9%	5.2%	30.5%	9.9%
2026-09-23T20:55:25+00:00	32.4%	62.9%	5.2%	30.5%	9.9%
2026-09-23T21:40:30+00:00	32.4%	62.9%	5.2%	30.5%	9.9%
2026-09-23T22:25:36+00:00	32.4%	62.9%	5.2%	30.5%	9.9%
2026-09-23T23:10:42+00:00	32.4%	62.9%	7.5%	30.5%	9.9%
2026-09-23T23:55:48+00:00	32.4%	62.9%	7.5%	30.5%	9.9%
2026-09-24T00:40:54+00:00	32.4%	62.9%	7.5%	30.5%	9.9%
2026-09-24T01:26:06+00:00	36.6%	62.9%	7.5%	30.5%	9.9%
2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00	36.6%	62.9%	7.5%	30.5%	9.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	63%	82.4°F	2.7°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	82.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-23 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	80.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	79.2°F	4.5°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
ICON	10%	76.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	76.2°F	3.7°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260926-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 19 · 11:25 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗