— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
55¢
eps
34¢
nbm
32¢
hres
24¢
aifs
18¢
wn2
3¢
icon
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F2¢
74–75°F8¢
76–77°F17¢
78–79°F25¢
80–81°F24¢
82–83°F15¢
84–85°F6¢
86–87°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 13,060 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.947 vs climatology 9.176.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260926-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-09-20T03:14:47+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape