KBNA / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST13%Sep 23 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

24%

18%

<1%

Consensus

13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 17.1¢Risks 17.05u

ICONNO 83.0¢Risks 82.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +82.95u · ICON −82.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T14:09:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-20T03:14:47+00:00	28.8%	41.2%	15.9%	28.7%	52.0%
2026-09-20T04:00:03+00:00	28.8%	41.2%	15.9%	28.7%	52.0%
2026-09-20T04:45:09+00:00	28.8%	41.2%	15.9%	28.7%	59.2%
2026-09-20T05:30:14+00:00	28.8%	41.2%	15.9%	28.7%	59.2%
2026-09-20T06:15:19+00:00	28.8%	41.2%	15.9%	28.7%	59.2%
2026-09-20T07:00:27+00:00	28.8%	41.2%	15.9%	28.7%	59.2%
2026-09-20T07:45:42+00:00	30.6%	41.2%	15.9%	30.4%	59.2%
2026-09-20T08:31:12+00:00	30.6%	41.2%	15.9%	30.4%	59.2%
2026-09-20T09:16:17+00:00	30.6%	41.2%	15.9%	30.4%	59.2%
2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00	30.6%	41.2%	15.9%	30.4%	59.2%
2026-09-20T10:46:26+00:00	30.6%	41.2%	15.9%	30.4%	59.2%
2026-09-20T11:31:33+00:00	30.6%	46.8%	15.9%	30.4%	59.2%
2026-09-20T12:16:52+00:00	30.6%	46.8%	15.9%	30.4%	59.2%
2026-09-20T13:01:57+00:00	30.6%	46.8%	15.9%	30.4%	59.2%
2026-09-20T13:47:03+00:00	28.0%	46.8%	15.9%	30.4%	59.2%
2026-09-20T14:33:34+00:00	28.0%	46.7%	16.0%	30.4%	59.2%
2026-09-21T03:20:45+00:00	9.1%	47.9%	16.0%	35.8%	44.2%
2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:00	9.1%	47.9%	16.0%	35.8%	44.2%
2026-09-21T04:51:09+00:00	9.1%	47.9%	16.0%	35.8%	45.3%
2026-09-21T05:36:17+00:00	9.1%	47.9%	16.0%	35.8%	45.3%
2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00	9.1%	47.9%	16.0%	35.8%	45.3%
2026-09-21T07:06:30+00:00	9.1%	47.9%	16.0%	35.8%	45.3%
2026-09-21T07:51:35+00:00	8.8%	47.9%	16.0%	35.8%	45.3%
2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00	8.8%	47.9%	16.0%	35.8%	45.3%
2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00	8.8%	47.9%	16.0%	35.8%	45.3%
2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00	8.8%	47.9%	16.0%	35.8%	45.3%
2026-09-21T10:52:09+00:00	8.8%	47.9%	16.0%	36.0%	45.3%
2026-09-21T11:37:52+00:00	8.8%	57.7%	16.0%	36.0%	45.3%
2026-09-21T12:23:01+00:00	8.8%	57.7%	16.0%	36.0%	45.3%
2026-09-21T13:08:06+00:00	8.8%	57.7%	16.0%	36.0%	45.3%
2026-09-21T13:53:12+00:00	7.8%	57.7%	16.1%	36.0%	45.2%
2026-09-21T14:40:18+00:00	7.8%	57.7%	16.1%	36.0%	45.2%
2026-09-21T15:25:30+00:00	7.8%	57.7%	16.1%	36.0%	45.2%
2026-09-21T16:10:46+00:00	7.8%	57.7%	16.1%	36.0%	45.2%
2026-09-21T16:55:51+00:00	7.8%	57.7%	16.1%	36.0%	44.6%
2026-09-21T17:40:57+00:00	7.8%	57.7%	16.1%	36.0%	44.6%
2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00	7.8%	57.7%	16.1%	36.0%	44.6%
2026-09-21T19:11:11+00:00	7.8%	57.7%	16.1%	36.0%	44.6%
2026-09-21T19:56:19+00:00	9.8%	57.7%	16.1%	39.2%	44.6%
2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00	9.8%	57.7%	16.1%	39.2%	44.6%
2026-09-21T21:26:36+00:00	9.8%	57.7%	16.1%	39.2%	44.6%
2026-09-21T22:11:42+00:00	9.8%	57.7%	16.1%	39.2%	44.6%
2026-09-21T22:56:47+00:00	9.8%	58.9%	16.1%	39.2%	44.6%
2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00	9.8%	58.9%	16.1%	39.2%	44.6%
2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00	9.8%	58.9%	16.1%	39.2%	44.6%
2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00	9.8%	58.9%	16.1%	39.2%	44.6%
2026-09-22T01:57:12+00:00	12.8%	58.9%	16.1%	39.2%	44.6%
2026-09-22T02:42:25+00:00	12.8%	58.9%	16.1%	39.2%	44.6%
2026-09-22T03:27:45+00:00	12.8%	58.9%	16.1%	39.2%	44.6%
2026-09-22T04:12:49+00:00	12.8%	58.9%	16.1%	39.2%	44.6%
2026-09-22T04:57:59+00:00	12.8%	58.9%	16.1%	39.2%	54.2%
2026-09-22T05:43:19+00:00	12.8%	58.9%	16.1%	39.2%	54.2%
2026-09-22T06:28:40+00:00	12.8%	58.9%	16.1%	39.2%	54.2%
2026-09-22T07:13:49+00:00	12.8%	58.9%	16.1%	39.2%	54.2%
2026-09-22T07:59:08+00:00	11.1%	58.9%	16.1%	51.6%	54.2%
2026-09-22T08:44:41+00:00	11.1%	58.9%	16.1%	51.6%	54.2%
2026-09-22T09:29:46+00:00	11.1%	58.9%	16.1%	51.6%	54.2%
2026-09-22T10:14:51+00:00	11.1%	58.9%	16.1%	51.6%	54.2%
2026-09-22T11:00:00+00:00	11.1%	71.1%	16.1%	51.6%	54.2%
2026-09-22T11:45:10+00:00	11.1%	71.1%	16.1%	51.6%	54.2%
2026-09-22T12:30:15+00:00	11.1%	71.1%	16.1%	51.6%	54.2%
2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:00	11.1%	71.1%	16.1%	51.6%	54.2%
2026-09-22T14:00:28+00:00	18.3%	71.1%	16.1%	51.6%	54.2%
2026-09-22T14:47:13+00:00	18.3%	71.1%	16.1%	51.6%	54.2%
2026-09-22T15:32:22+00:00	18.3%	71.1%	16.1%	51.6%	54.2%
2026-09-22T16:17:40+00:00	18.3%	71.1%	16.1%	51.6%	54.2%
2026-09-22T17:02:46+00:00	18.3%	71.1%	16.1%	51.6%	29.9%
2026-09-22T17:47:52+00:00	18.3%	71.1%	16.1%	51.6%	29.9%
2026-09-22T18:32:56+00:00	18.3%	71.1%	16.1%	51.6%	29.9%
2026-09-22T19:18:05+00:00	18.3%	71.1%	16.1%	51.6%	29.9%
2026-09-22T20:03:10+00:00	18.9%	71.1%	16.1%	51.6%	29.9%
2026-09-22T20:48:15+00:00	18.9%	71.1%	16.1%	51.6%	29.9%
2026-09-22T21:33:22+00:00	18.9%	71.1%	16.1%	51.6%	29.9%
2026-09-22T22:18:31+00:00	18.9%	71.1%	16.1%	51.6%	29.9%
2026-09-22T23:03:38+00:00	18.9%	71.6%	3.8%	51.6%	29.9%
2026-09-22T23:48:44+00:00	18.9%	71.6%	3.8%	51.6%	29.9%
2026-09-23T00:33:50+00:00	18.9%	71.6%	3.8%	51.6%	29.9%
2026-09-23T01:18:58+00:00	18.9%	71.6%	3.8%	51.6%	29.9%
2026-09-23T02:04:05+00:00	15.6%	71.6%	3.8%	51.6%	29.9%
2026-09-23T02:49:17+00:00	15.6%	71.6%	3.8%	51.6%	29.9%
2026-09-23T03:34:35+00:00	15.6%	71.6%	3.8%	51.6%	29.9%
2026-09-23T04:19:44+00:00	15.6%	71.6%	3.8%	51.6%	29.9%
2026-09-23T05:04:52+00:00	15.6%	71.6%	3.8%	35.3%	0.3%
2026-09-23T05:50:04+00:00	15.6%	71.6%	3.8%	35.3%	0.3%
2026-09-23T06:35:09+00:00	15.6%	71.6%	3.8%	35.3%	0.3%
2026-09-23T07:20:18+00:00	15.6%	71.6%	3.8%	35.3%	0.3%
2026-09-23T08:05:39+00:00	12.2%	71.6%	3.8%	23.9%	0.3%
2026-09-23T08:51:11+00:00	12.2%	71.6%	3.8%	23.9%	0.3%
2026-09-23T09:36:16+00:00	12.2%	71.6%	3.8%	23.9%	0.3%
2026-09-23T10:21:21+00:00	12.2%	71.6%	3.8%	23.9%	0.3%
2026-09-23T11:06:27+00:00	12.2%	33.8%	2.7%	23.9%	0.3%
2026-09-23T11:51:39+00:00	12.2%	33.8%	2.7%	23.9%	0.3%
2026-09-23T12:36:44+00:00	12.2%	33.8%	2.7%	23.9%	0.3%
2026-09-23T13:21:49+00:00	18.1%	33.8%	2.7%	23.9%	0.3%
2026-09-23T14:09:06+00:00	18.0%	33.8%	2.7%	23.9%	0.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	84.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-23 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	82.4°F	2.6°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	80.3°F	4.5°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	18%	79.5°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	76.4°F	3.7°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	72.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260926-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 20 · 03:14 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 84°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗