— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
55¢
eps
33¢
hres
25¢
icon
12¢
aifs
11¢
wn2
11¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F7¢
78–79°F19¢
80–81°F30¢
82–83°F26¢
84–85°F12¢
86–87°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,365 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.56 vs climatology 9.116.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260928-TMAX-GE87 · opened 2026-09-21T10:52:09+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape