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KBNA / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Sep 21 · 10:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
33%
HRES
25%
ICON
12%
AIFS
11%
WN2
11%
Consensus
22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 21.8¢Risks 21.80u
VS
WN2NO 78.2¢Risks 78.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +78.20u · WN2 −78.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-09-21T10:52:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.7% · 2026-09-21T10:52:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.9% · 2026-09-21T10:52:09+00:00IFS HRES: 25.1% · 2026-09-21T10:52:09+00:00ICON: 11.9% · 2026-09-21T10:52:09+00:0009-21 10:52
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

One recorded snapshot. Additional runs will extend this chart.

2026-09-21T10:52:09+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-21T10:52:09+00:0011.0%32.7%10.9%25.1%11.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend55%87.0°F4.3°F2026-09-21 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble33%84.9°F3.6°F2026-09-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES25%82.3°F6.2°F2026-09-21 00:00Pending
ICON12%75.0°F9.8°F2026-09-21 00:00Pending
AIFS Single11%79.7°F5.5°F2026-09-21 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 211%79.3°F5.8°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260928-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 21 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗