— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
80¢
hres
78¢
icon
77¢
nbm
52¢
wn2
48¢
aifs
44¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
82–83°F1¢
84–85°F3¢
86–87°F11¢
88–89°F22¢
90–91°F28¢
92–93°F21¢
94–95°F10¢
96–97°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 13,267 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.951 vs climatology 9.116.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20260930-TMAX-GE87 · opened 2026-09-23T11:06:27+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape