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KBNA / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Sep 24 · 02:11 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
80%
HRES
78%
ICON
77%
WN2
48%
AIFS
44%
Consensus
68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 62.3¢Risks 62.25u
VS
AIFSNO 37.7¢Risks 37.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.75u · AIFS −37.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-09-23T11:06:27+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-09-23T11:51:39+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-09-23T12:36:44+00:00AIFS Single: 71.7% · 2026-09-23T13:21:49+00:00AIFS Single: 71.8% · 2026-09-23T14:09:06+00:00AIFS Single: 71.8% · 2026-09-23T14:54:18+00:00AIFS Single: 71.8% · 2026-09-23T15:39:30+00:00AIFS Single: 71.8% · 2026-09-23T16:24:37+00:00AIFS Single: 71.8% · 2026-09-23T17:09:47+00:00AIFS Single: 71.8% · 2026-09-23T17:54:55+00:00AIFS Single: 71.8% · 2026-09-23T18:40:00+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-09-23T19:25:12+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-09-23T20:10:19+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-09-23T20:55:25+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-09-23T21:40:30+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-09-23T22:25:37+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-09-23T23:10:42+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-09-23T23:55:48+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-09-24T00:40:54+00:00AIFS Single: 44.3% · 2026-09-24T01:26:06+00:00AIFS Single: 44.3% · 2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.3% · 2026-09-23T11:06:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.3% · 2026-09-23T11:51:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.3% · 2026-09-23T12:36:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.3% · 2026-09-23T13:21:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.3% · 2026-09-23T14:09:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.2% · 2026-09-23T14:54:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.2% · 2026-09-23T15:39:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.2% · 2026-09-23T16:24:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.2% · 2026-09-23T17:09:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.2% · 2026-09-23T17:54:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.2% · 2026-09-23T18:40:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.2% · 2026-09-23T19:25:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.2% · 2026-09-23T20:10:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.2% · 2026-09-23T20:55:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.2% · 2026-09-23T21:40:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.2% · 2026-09-23T22:25:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.2% · 2026-09-23T23:10:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.2% · 2026-09-23T23:55:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.2% · 2026-09-24T00:40:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.2% · 2026-09-24T01:26:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.2% · 2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.7% · 2026-09-23T11:06:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.7% · 2026-09-23T11:51:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.7% · 2026-09-23T12:36:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.7% · 2026-09-23T13:21:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.7% · 2026-09-23T14:09:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.7% · 2026-09-23T14:54:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.7% · 2026-09-23T15:39:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.7% · 2026-09-23T16:24:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.8% · 2026-09-23T17:09:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.8% · 2026-09-23T17:54:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.8% · 2026-09-23T18:40:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.8% · 2026-09-23T19:25:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.8% · 2026-09-23T20:10:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.8% · 2026-09-23T20:55:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.8% · 2026-09-23T21:40:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.8% · 2026-09-23T22:25:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.3% · 2026-09-23T23:10:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.3% · 2026-09-23T23:55:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.3% · 2026-09-24T00:40:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.3% · 2026-09-24T01:26:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 48.3% · 2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00IFS HRES: 11.8% · 2026-09-23T11:06:27+00:00IFS HRES: 11.8% · 2026-09-23T11:51:39+00:00IFS HRES: 11.8% · 2026-09-23T12:36:44+00:00IFS HRES: 11.8% · 2026-09-23T13:21:49+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-09-23T14:09:06+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-09-23T14:54:18+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-09-23T15:39:30+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-09-23T16:24:37+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-09-23T17:09:47+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-09-23T17:54:55+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-09-23T18:40:00+00:00IFS HRES: 78.4% · 2026-09-23T19:25:12+00:00IFS HRES: 78.4% · 2026-09-23T20:10:19+00:00IFS HRES: 78.4% · 2026-09-23T20:55:25+00:00IFS HRES: 78.4% · 2026-09-23T21:40:30+00:00IFS HRES: 78.4% · 2026-09-23T22:25:37+00:00IFS HRES: 78.4% · 2026-09-23T23:10:42+00:00IFS HRES: 78.4% · 2026-09-23T23:55:48+00:00IFS HRES: 78.4% · 2026-09-24T00:40:54+00:00IFS HRES: 78.4% · 2026-09-24T01:26:06+00:00IFS HRES: 78.4% · 2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00ICON: 19.5% · 2026-09-23T11:06:27+00:00ICON: 19.5% · 2026-09-23T11:51:39+00:00ICON: 19.5% · 2026-09-23T12:36:44+00:00ICON: 19.5% · 2026-09-23T13:21:49+00:00ICON: 19.3% · 2026-09-23T14:09:06+00:00ICON: 19.3% · 2026-09-23T14:54:18+00:00ICON: 19.3% · 2026-09-23T15:39:30+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-09-23T16:24:37+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-09-23T17:09:47+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-09-23T17:54:55+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-09-23T18:40:00+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-09-23T19:25:12+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-09-23T20:10:19+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-09-23T20:55:25+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-09-23T21:40:30+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-09-23T22:25:37+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-09-23T23:10:42+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-09-23T23:55:48+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-09-24T00:40:54+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-09-24T01:26:06+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:0009-23 11:0609-23 18:4009-24 02:11
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-23T11:06:27+00:003.2%79.3%26.7%11.8%19.5%
2026-09-23T11:51:39+00:003.2%79.3%26.7%11.8%19.5%
2026-09-23T12:36:44+00:003.2%79.3%26.7%11.8%19.5%
2026-09-23T13:21:49+00:0071.7%79.3%26.7%11.8%19.5%
2026-09-23T14:09:06+00:0071.8%79.3%26.7%11.9%19.3%
2026-09-23T14:54:18+00:0071.8%80.2%26.7%11.9%19.3%
2026-09-23T15:39:30+00:0071.8%80.2%26.7%11.9%19.3%
2026-09-23T16:24:37+00:0071.8%80.2%26.7%11.9%76.6%
2026-09-23T17:09:47+00:0071.8%80.2%37.8%11.9%76.6%
2026-09-23T17:54:55+00:0071.8%80.2%37.8%11.9%76.6%
2026-09-23T18:40:00+00:0071.8%80.2%37.8%11.9%76.6%
2026-09-23T19:25:12+00:0075.3%80.2%37.8%78.4%76.6%
2026-09-23T20:10:19+00:0075.3%80.2%37.8%78.4%76.6%
2026-09-23T20:55:25+00:0075.3%80.2%37.8%78.4%76.6%
2026-09-23T21:40:30+00:0075.3%80.2%37.8%78.4%76.6%
2026-09-23T22:25:37+00:0075.3%80.2%37.8%78.4%76.6%
2026-09-23T23:10:42+00:0075.3%80.2%48.3%78.4%76.6%
2026-09-23T23:55:48+00:0075.3%80.2%48.3%78.4%76.6%
2026-09-24T00:40:54+00:0075.3%80.2%48.3%78.4%76.6%
2026-09-24T01:26:06+00:0044.3%80.2%48.3%78.4%76.6%
2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:0044.3%80.2%48.3%78.4%76.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble80%89.3°F3.3°F2026-09-23 00:00Pending
IFS HRES78%91.5°F6.3°F2026-09-23 12:00Pending
ICON77%93.6°F9.8°F2026-09-23 12:00Pending
National Blend52%87.0°F8.0°F2026-09-23 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 248%86.3°F4.8°F2026-09-23 12:00Pending
AIFS Single44%85.7°F5.6°F2026-09-23 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260930-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 23 · 11:06 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗