— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
82¢
aifs
74¢
icon
72¢
eps
71¢
wn2
58¢
nbm
53¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
86–87°F1¢
88–89°F6¢
90–91°F20¢
92–93°F33¢
94–95°F27¢
96–97°F11¢
98–99°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,523 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.557 vs climatology 9.066.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261001-TMAX-GE88 · opened 2026-09-24T07:27:47+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape