KBNA / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Sep 25 · 02:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

74%

72%

71%

58%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 69.8¢Risks 69.85u

WN2NO 30.2¢Risks 30.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +30.15u · WN2 −30.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T02:18:58+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-24T07:27:47+00:00	75.8%	29.8%	53.1%	81.5%	43.5%
2026-09-24T08:13:25+00:00	75.8%	29.8%	53.1%	81.5%	43.5%
2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:00	75.8%	29.8%	53.1%	81.5%	43.5%
2026-09-24T09:43:41+00:00	75.8%	29.8%	53.1%	81.5%	43.5%
2026-09-24T10:28:46+00:00	75.8%	29.8%	53.1%	81.5%	43.5%
2026-09-24T11:13:52+00:00	75.8%	78.7%	59.8%	81.5%	43.5%
2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:00	75.8%	78.7%	59.8%	81.5%	43.5%
2026-09-24T12:44:02+00:00	75.8%	78.7%	59.8%	81.5%	43.5%
2026-09-24T13:29:17+00:00	76.4%	78.7%	59.8%	81.5%	43.5%
2026-09-24T14:16:41+00:00	75.8%	78.4%	59.8%	81.5%	43.5%
2026-09-24T15:01:53+00:00	75.8%	75.2%	59.8%	81.5%	43.5%
2026-09-24T15:47:18+00:00	75.8%	75.5%	59.8%	81.5%	43.5%
2026-09-24T16:32:28+00:00	75.8%	75.5%	59.8%	81.5%	43.5%
2026-09-24T17:17:33+00:00	75.8%	75.5%	57.3%	81.5%	43.5%
2026-09-24T18:02:39+00:00	75.8%	75.5%	57.3%	81.5%	43.5%
2026-09-24T18:47:43+00:00	75.8%	75.5%	57.3%	81.5%	43.5%
2026-09-24T19:32:53+00:00	76.4%	75.5%	57.3%	81.5%	72.3%
2026-09-24T20:18:01+00:00	76.4%	75.5%	57.3%	81.5%	72.3%
2026-09-24T21:03:07+00:00	76.4%	75.5%	57.3%	81.5%	72.3%
2026-09-24T21:48:12+00:00	76.4%	75.5%	57.3%	81.5%	72.3%
2026-09-24T22:33:17+00:00	76.4%	75.5%	57.3%	81.5%	72.3%
2026-09-24T23:18:23+00:00	76.4%	71.0%	58.2%	81.5%	72.3%
2026-09-25T00:03:30+00:00	76.4%	71.0%	58.2%	81.5%	72.3%
2026-09-25T00:48:42+00:00	76.4%	71.0%	58.2%	81.5%	72.3%
2026-09-25T01:33:51+00:00	74.1%	71.0%	58.2%	81.5%	72.3%
2026-09-25T02:18:58+00:00	74.1%	71.0%	58.2%	81.5%	72.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	82%	93.2°F	6.4°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	91.1°F	5.6°F	2026-09-24 18:00	Pending
ICON	72%	93.3°F	9.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	90.1°F	4.7°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	88.5°F	4.9°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	88.0°F	7.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261001-TMAX-GE88
Opened Sep 24 · 07:27 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 88°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗