— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
98¢
hres
97¢
wn2
86¢
icon
67¢
nbm
55¢
ndfd
54¢
aifs
48¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
82–83°F1¢
84–85°F6¢
86–87°F16¢
88–89°F26¢
90–91°F26¢
92–93°F16¢
94–95°F6¢
96–97°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,523 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.557 vs climatology 9.066.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261002-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-09-27T03:19:46+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape