WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KBNA / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Sep 27 · 10:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
98%
HRES
97%
WN2
86%
ICON
67%
AIFS
48%
Consensus
84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 73.1¢Risks 73.10u
VS
AIFSNO 26.9¢Risks 26.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.90u · AIFS −26.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-09-27T03:19:46+00:00AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-09-27T04:05:13+00:00AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-09-27T04:50:19+00:00AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-09-27T05:35:28+00:00AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-09-27T06:20:38+00:00AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-09-27T07:51:10+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-09-27T08:36:52+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-09-27T09:21:59+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-09-27T10:52:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.8% · 2026-09-27T03:19:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.8% · 2026-09-27T04:05:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.8% · 2026-09-27T04:50:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.8% · 2026-09-27T05:35:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.8% · 2026-09-27T06:20:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.8% · 2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.8% · 2026-09-27T07:51:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.8% · 2026-09-27T08:36:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.8% · 2026-09-27T09:21:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.8% · 2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.8% · 2026-09-27T10:52:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.4% · 2026-09-27T03:19:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.4% · 2026-09-27T04:05:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.4% · 2026-09-27T04:50:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.5% · 2026-09-27T05:35:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.5% · 2026-09-27T06:20:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.5% · 2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.5% · 2026-09-27T07:51:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.5% · 2026-09-27T08:36:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.5% · 2026-09-27T09:21:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.5% · 2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.5% · 2026-09-27T10:52:09+00:00IFS HRES: 92.4% · 2026-09-27T03:19:46+00:00IFS HRES: 92.4% · 2026-09-27T04:05:13+00:00IFS HRES: 92.4% · 2026-09-27T04:50:19+00:00IFS HRES: 92.4% · 2026-09-27T05:35:28+00:00IFS HRES: 92.4% · 2026-09-27T06:20:38+00:00IFS HRES: 92.4% · 2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-09-27T07:51:10+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-09-27T08:36:52+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-09-27T09:21:59+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-09-27T10:52:09+00:00ICON: 92.2% · 2026-09-27T03:19:46+00:00ICON: 92.2% · 2026-09-27T04:05:13+00:00ICON: 66.6% · 2026-09-27T04:50:19+00:00ICON: 66.6% · 2026-09-27T05:35:28+00:00ICON: 66.6% · 2026-09-27T06:20:38+00:00ICON: 66.6% · 2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00ICON: 66.6% · 2026-09-27T07:51:10+00:00ICON: 66.6% · 2026-09-27T08:36:52+00:00ICON: 66.6% · 2026-09-27T09:21:59+00:00ICON: 66.6% · 2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00ICON: 66.6% · 2026-09-27T10:52:09+00:0009-27 03:1909-27 07:0509-27 10:52
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-27T10:52:09+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-27T03:19:46+00:0087.0%97.8%83.4%92.4%92.2%
2026-09-27T04:05:13+00:0087.0%97.8%83.4%92.4%92.2%
2026-09-27T04:50:19+00:0087.0%97.8%83.4%92.4%66.6%
2026-09-27T05:35:28+00:0087.0%97.8%86.5%92.4%66.6%
2026-09-27T06:20:38+00:0087.0%97.8%86.5%92.4%66.6%
2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:0087.0%97.8%86.5%92.4%66.6%
2026-09-27T07:51:10+00:0048.4%97.8%86.5%96.7%66.6%
2026-09-27T08:36:52+00:0048.4%97.8%86.5%96.7%66.6%
2026-09-27T09:21:59+00:0048.4%97.8%86.5%96.7%66.6%
2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:0048.4%97.8%86.5%96.7%66.6%
2026-09-27T10:52:09+00:0048.4%97.8%86.5%96.7%66.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble98%91.4°F3.9°F2026-09-26 00:00Pending
IFS HRES97%94.2°F5.8°F2026-09-27 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 286%88.5°F4.5°F2026-09-26 18:00Pending
ICON67%86.0°F5.8°F2026-09-27 00:00Pending
National Blend55%84.6°F8.8°F2026-09-27 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%84.0°F5.1°F2026-09-27 02:00Pending
AIFS Single48%83.3°F4.9°F2026-09-27 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261002-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 27 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 84°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗