— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
83¢
rrfs
46¢
nbm
46¢
ndfd
41¢
hres
34¢
wn2
20¢
aifs
19¢
icon
18¢
now
1¢
hrrr
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
82–83°F1¢
84–85°F5¢
86–87°F14¢
88–89°F26¢
90–91°F28¢
92–93°F18¢
94–95°F7¢
96–97°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,523 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.557 vs climatology 9.066.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261002-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-09-25T19:39:34+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape