KBNA / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 02 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

34%

20%

19%

18%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.6¢Risks 50.60u

ICONNO 49.4¢Risks 49.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.40u · ICON −49.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T10:07:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-25T19:39:34+00:00	61.3%	58.4%	50.0%	78.8%	58.5%
2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00	61.3%	58.4%	50.0%	78.8%	58.5%
2026-09-25T21:10:23+00:00	61.3%	58.4%	50.0%	78.8%	58.5%
2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00	61.3%	58.4%	50.0%	78.8%	58.5%
2026-09-25T22:40:32+00:00	61.3%	58.4%	50.0%	78.8%	58.5%
2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00	61.3%	58.4%	43.5%	78.8%	58.5%
2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00	61.3%	58.4%	43.5%	78.8%	58.5%
2026-09-26T00:55:52+00:00	61.3%	58.4%	43.5%	78.8%	58.5%
2026-09-26T01:41:04+00:00	50.7%	58.4%	43.5%	78.8%	58.5%
2026-09-26T02:26:22+00:00	50.7%	58.4%	43.5%	78.8%	58.5%
2026-09-26T03:11:44+00:00	50.7%	58.4%	43.5%	78.8%	58.5%
2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00	50.7%	58.4%	43.5%	78.8%	58.5%
2026-09-26T04:42:05+00:00	50.7%	58.4%	43.5%	78.8%	33.7%
2026-09-26T05:27:18+00:00	50.7%	58.4%	44.3%	78.8%	33.7%
2026-09-26T06:12:25+00:00	50.7%	58.4%	44.3%	78.8%	33.7%
2026-09-26T06:57:30+00:00	50.7%	58.4%	44.3%	78.8%	33.7%
2026-09-26T07:42:58+00:00	58.2%	58.4%	44.3%	78.7%	33.7%
2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00	58.2%	58.4%	44.3%	78.7%	33.7%
2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00	58.2%	58.4%	44.3%	78.7%	33.7%
2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00	58.2%	58.4%	44.3%	78.7%	33.7%
2026-09-26T10:44:04+00:00	58.2%	58.4%	44.3%	78.7%	33.7%
2026-09-26T11:29:16+00:00	58.2%	68.5%	39.6%	78.7%	33.7%
2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00	58.2%	68.5%	39.6%	78.7%	33.7%
2026-09-26T12:59:35+00:00	58.2%	68.5%	39.6%	78.7%	33.7%
2026-09-26T13:44:43+00:00	56.7%	68.5%	39.6%	78.7%	33.7%
2026-09-26T14:32:08+00:00	56.7%	68.5%	39.6%	78.8%	33.7%
2026-09-26T15:17:30+00:00	56.7%	68.5%	39.6%	78.8%	33.7%
2026-09-26T16:02:36+00:00	56.7%	68.5%	39.6%	78.8%	33.7%
2026-09-26T16:47:42+00:00	56.7%	68.5%	39.6%	78.8%	70.9%
2026-09-26T17:32:51+00:00	56.7%	68.5%	39.6%	78.8%	70.9%
2026-09-26T18:17:59+00:00	56.7%	68.5%	39.6%	78.8%	70.9%
2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00	56.7%	68.5%	39.6%	78.8%	70.9%
2026-09-26T19:48:18+00:00	15.1%	68.5%	39.6%	70.1%	70.9%
2026-09-26T20:33:26+00:00	15.1%	68.5%	39.6%	70.1%	70.9%
2026-09-26T21:18:32+00:00	15.1%	68.5%	39.6%	70.1%	70.9%
2026-09-26T22:03:38+00:00	15.1%	68.5%	39.6%	70.1%	70.9%
2026-09-26T22:48:45+00:00	15.1%	68.5%	39.6%	70.1%	70.9%
2026-09-26T23:33:55+00:00	15.1%	68.5%	36.2%	70.1%	70.9%
2026-09-27T00:19:03+00:00	15.1%	68.5%	36.2%	70.1%	70.9%
2026-09-27T01:04:12+00:00	15.1%	68.5%	36.2%	70.1%	70.9%
2026-09-27T01:49:25+00:00	50.0%	68.5%	36.2%	70.1%	70.9%
2026-09-27T02:34:31+00:00	50.0%	68.5%	36.2%	70.1%	70.9%
2026-09-27T03:19:46+00:00	50.0%	68.5%	36.2%	70.1%	70.9%
2026-09-27T04:05:13+00:00	50.0%	68.5%	36.2%	70.1%	70.9%
2026-09-27T04:50:19+00:00	50.0%	68.5%	36.2%	70.1%	27.4%
2026-09-27T05:35:28+00:00	50.0%	68.5%	41.3%	70.1%	27.4%
2026-09-27T06:20:38+00:00	50.0%	68.5%	41.3%	70.1%	27.4%
2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00	50.0%	68.5%	41.3%	70.1%	27.4%
2026-09-27T07:51:10+00:00	10.5%	68.5%	41.3%	79.0%	27.4%
2026-09-27T08:36:52+00:00	10.5%	68.5%	41.3%	79.0%	27.4%
2026-09-27T09:21:59+00:00	10.5%	68.5%	41.3%	79.0%	27.4%
2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00	10.5%	68.5%	41.3%	79.0%	27.4%
2026-09-27T10:52:09+00:00	10.5%	68.5%	41.3%	79.0%	27.4%
2026-09-27T11:37:17+00:00	10.5%	98.0%	40.6%	79.0%	27.4%
2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00	10.5%	98.0%	40.6%	79.0%	27.4%
2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00	10.5%	98.0%	40.6%	79.0%	27.4%
2026-09-27T13:52:42+00:00	10.1%	98.0%	40.6%	79.0%	27.4%
2026-09-27T14:40:06+00:00	10.1%	98.0%	40.6%	79.0%	27.4%
2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00	10.1%	98.0%	40.6%	79.0%	27.4%
2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00	10.1%	98.0%	40.6%	79.0%	27.4%
2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00	10.1%	98.0%	39.7%	79.0%	29.7%
2026-09-27T17:40:47+00:00	10.1%	98.0%	39.7%	79.0%	29.7%
2026-09-27T18:25:58+00:00	10.1%	98.0%	39.7%	79.0%	29.7%
2026-09-27T19:11:09+00:00	10.1%	98.0%	39.7%	79.0%	29.7%
2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00	20.3%	98.0%	39.7%	67.9%	29.7%
2026-09-27T20:41:27+00:00	20.3%	98.0%	39.7%	67.9%	29.7%
2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00	20.3%	98.0%	39.7%	67.9%	29.7%
2026-09-27T22:11:36+00:00	20.3%	98.0%	39.7%	67.9%	29.7%
2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00	20.3%	98.2%	44.3%	67.9%	29.7%
2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00	20.3%	98.2%	44.3%	67.9%	29.7%
2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00	20.3%	98.2%	44.3%	67.9%	29.7%
2026-09-28T01:12:04+00:00	20.3%	98.2%	44.3%	67.9%	29.7%
2026-09-28T01:57:11+00:00	24.6%	98.2%	44.3%	67.9%	29.7%
2026-09-28T02:42:17+00:00	24.6%	98.2%	44.3%	67.9%	29.7%
2026-09-28T03:27:34+00:00	24.6%	98.2%	44.3%	67.9%	29.7%
2026-09-28T04:13:29+00:00	24.6%	98.2%	44.3%	67.9%	29.7%
2026-09-28T04:58:35+00:00	24.6%	98.2%	47.2%	67.9%	13.6%
2026-09-28T05:43:44+00:00	24.6%	98.2%	47.2%	67.9%	13.6%
2026-09-28T06:28:55+00:00	24.6%	98.2%	47.2%	67.9%	13.6%
2026-09-28T07:14:00+00:00	24.6%	98.2%	47.2%	67.9%	13.6%
2026-09-28T07:59:29+00:00	61.9%	98.2%	47.2%	78.7%	13.6%
2026-09-28T08:45:28+00:00	61.9%	98.2%	47.2%	78.7%	13.6%
2026-09-28T09:30:33+00:00	61.9%	98.2%	47.2%	78.7%	13.6%
2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00	61.9%	98.2%	47.2%	78.7%	13.6%
2026-09-28T11:00:49+00:00	61.9%	94.6%	50.0%	78.7%	13.6%
2026-09-28T11:46:05+00:00	61.9%	94.6%	50.0%	78.7%	13.6%
2026-09-28T12:31:12+00:00	61.9%	94.6%	50.0%	78.7%	13.6%
2026-09-28T13:16:21+00:00	61.9%	94.6%	50.0%	78.7%	13.6%
2026-09-28T14:01:27+00:00	43.1%	94.6%	50.0%	78.7%	13.6%
2026-09-28T14:48:35+00:00	43.1%	94.6%	50.0%	78.7%	13.6%
2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00	43.1%	94.6%	50.0%	78.7%	13.6%
2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00	43.1%	94.6%	50.0%	78.7%	13.6%
2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00	43.1%	94.6%	48.0%	79.1%	19.9%
2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00	43.1%	94.6%	48.0%	79.1%	19.9%
2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00	43.1%	94.6%	48.0%	79.1%	19.9%
2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00	43.1%	94.6%	48.0%	79.1%	19.9%
2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00	48.3%	94.6%	48.0%	77.9%	19.9%
2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00	48.3%	94.6%	48.0%	77.9%	19.9%
2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00	48.3%	94.6%	48.0%	77.9%	19.9%
2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00	48.3%	94.6%	48.0%	77.9%	19.9%
2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00	48.3%	94.6%	45.0%	77.5%	19.9%
2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00	48.3%	94.6%	45.0%	77.5%	19.9%
2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:00	48.3%	94.6%	45.0%	77.5%	19.9%
2026-09-29T01:20:27+00:00	48.3%	94.6%	45.0%	77.5%	19.9%
2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00	25.2%	94.6%	45.0%	77.5%	19.9%
2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00	25.2%	94.6%	45.0%	77.5%	19.9%
2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00	25.2%	94.6%	45.0%	77.5%	19.9%
2026-09-29T04:21:24+00:00	25.2%	94.6%	45.0%	77.5%	19.9%
2026-09-29T05:06:54+00:00	25.2%	94.6%	57.0%	77.5%	14.7%
2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00	25.2%	94.6%	57.0%	77.5%	14.7%
2026-09-29T06:37:09+00:00	25.2%	94.6%	57.0%	77.5%	14.7%
2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:00	23.1%	94.6%	57.0%	70.3%	14.7%
2026-09-29T08:08:16+00:00	23.1%	94.6%	57.0%	70.3%	14.7%
2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00	23.1%	94.6%	57.0%	70.3%	14.7%
2026-09-29T09:38:37+00:00	23.1%	94.6%	57.0%	70.3%	14.7%
2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:00	23.1%	94.6%	57.0%	70.3%	14.7%
2026-09-29T11:08:51+00:00	23.1%	93.3%	57.0%	70.3%	14.7%
2026-09-29T11:54:06+00:00	23.1%	93.3%	57.0%	70.3%	14.7%
2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00	23.1%	93.3%	57.0%	70.3%	14.7%
2026-09-29T13:24:16+00:00	50.0%	93.3%	57.0%	70.3%	14.7%
2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:00	50.0%	93.2%	57.0%	70.3%	14.7%
2026-09-29T14:56:55+00:00	50.0%	93.2%	57.0%	70.3%	14.7%
2026-09-29T15:42:15+00:00	50.0%	93.3%	57.0%	70.3%	14.7%
2026-09-29T16:27:41+00:00	50.0%	93.3%	57.0%	70.3%	50.0%
2026-09-29T17:12:51+00:00	50.0%	93.3%	54.3%	70.3%	50.0%
2026-09-29T17:57:58+00:00	50.0%	93.3%	54.3%	70.3%	50.0%
2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00	50.0%	93.3%	54.3%	70.3%	50.0%
2026-09-29T19:28:13+00:00	35.7%	93.3%	54.3%	26.7%	50.0%
2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:00	35.7%	93.3%	54.3%	26.7%	50.0%
2026-09-29T20:58:47+00:00	35.7%	93.3%	54.3%	26.7%	50.0%
2026-09-29T21:43:55+00:00	35.7%	93.3%	54.3%	26.7%	50.0%
2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:00	35.7%	93.3%	54.3%	26.7%	50.0%
2026-09-29T23:14:14+00:00	35.7%	93.3%	45.7%	26.7%	50.0%
2026-09-29T23:59:27+00:00	35.7%	93.3%	45.7%	26.7%	50.0%
2026-09-30T00:44:33+00:00	35.7%	93.3%	45.7%	26.7%	50.0%
2026-09-30T01:29:51+00:00	35.7%	93.3%	45.7%	26.7%	50.0%
2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:00	35.7%	93.3%	45.7%	26.7%	50.0%
2026-09-30T03:00:08+00:00	35.7%	93.3%	45.7%	26.7%	50.0%
2026-09-30T03:45:22+00:00	35.7%	93.3%	45.7%	26.7%	50.0%
2026-09-30T04:30:39+00:00	35.7%	93.3%	45.7%	26.7%	44.4%
2026-09-30T05:16:19+00:00	35.7%	93.3%	57.5%	26.7%	44.4%
2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00	35.7%	93.3%	57.5%	26.7%	44.4%
2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00	35.7%	93.3%	57.5%	26.7%	44.4%
2026-09-30T07:31:59+00:00	35.7%	93.3%	57.5%	30.5%	44.4%
2026-09-30T08:18:13+00:00	35.7%	93.3%	57.5%	30.5%	44.4%
2026-09-30T09:03:35+00:00	35.7%	93.3%	57.5%	30.5%	44.4%
2026-09-30T09:48:41+00:00	35.7%	93.3%	57.5%	30.5%	44.4%
2026-09-30T10:34:40+00:00	23.5%	93.3%	57.5%	30.5%	44.4%
2026-09-30T11:19:59+00:00	23.5%	89.0%	50.0%	30.5%	44.4%
2026-09-30T12:05:14+00:00	23.5%	89.0%	50.0%	30.5%	44.4%
2026-09-30T12:50:19+00:00	23.5%	89.0%	50.0%	30.5%	44.4%
2026-09-30T13:35:29+00:00	29.0%	89.0%	50.0%	30.5%	44.4%
2026-09-30T14:23:08+00:00	29.0%	89.0%	50.0%	30.5%	44.4%
2026-09-30T15:08:15+00:00	29.0%	88.9%	50.0%	30.5%	44.4%
2026-09-30T15:53:28+00:00	29.0%	88.9%	50.0%	30.5%	44.4%
2026-09-30T16:38:49+00:00	29.0%	88.9%	50.0%	30.5%	18.2%
2026-09-30T17:23:57+00:00	29.0%	88.9%	46.6%	30.5%	18.2%
2026-09-30T18:09:04+00:00	29.0%	88.9%	46.6%	30.5%	18.2%
2026-09-30T18:54:13+00:00	29.0%	88.9%	46.6%	30.5%	18.2%
2026-09-30T19:39:19+00:00	11.9%	88.9%	46.6%	18.4%	18.2%
2026-09-30T20:24:32+00:00	11.9%	88.9%	46.6%	18.4%	18.2%
2026-09-30T21:09:38+00:00	11.9%	88.9%	46.6%	18.4%	18.2%
2026-09-30T21:54:44+00:00	11.9%	88.9%	46.6%	18.4%	18.2%
2026-09-30T22:39:50+00:00	11.9%	88.9%	46.6%	18.4%	18.2%
2026-09-30T23:24:55+00:00	11.9%	89.8%	38.9%	18.4%	18.2%
2026-10-01T00:10:15+00:00	11.9%	89.8%	38.9%	18.4%	18.2%
2026-10-01T00:55:50+00:00	11.9%	89.8%	38.9%	18.4%	18.2%
2026-10-01T01:40:55+00:00	32.4%	89.8%	38.9%	18.4%	18.2%
2026-10-01T02:26:03+00:00	32.4%	89.8%	38.9%	18.4%	18.2%
2026-10-01T03:11:22+00:00	32.4%	89.8%	38.9%	18.4%	18.2%
2026-10-01T03:57:03+00:00	32.4%	89.8%	38.9%	18.4%	18.2%
2026-10-01T04:42:09+00:00	32.4%	89.8%	38.9%	18.4%	18.2%
2026-10-01T05:27:13+00:00	32.4%	89.8%	54.5%	18.4%	18.2%
2026-10-01T06:12:19+00:00	32.4%	89.8%	54.5%	18.4%	18.2%
2026-10-01T06:57:24+00:00	32.4%	89.8%	54.5%	18.4%	18.2%
2026-10-01T07:42:48+00:00	25.2%	89.8%	54.5%	64.6%	18.2%
2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00	25.2%	89.8%	54.5%	64.6%	18.2%
2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00	25.2%	89.8%	54.5%	64.6%	18.2%
2026-10-01T09:58:54+00:00	25.2%	89.8%	54.5%	64.6%	18.2%
2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00	25.2%	89.8%	54.5%	64.6%	18.2%
2026-10-01T11:29:09+00:00	25.2%	82.1%	47.7%	64.6%	18.2%
2026-10-01T12:14:28+00:00	25.2%	82.1%	47.7%	64.6%	18.2%
2026-10-01T12:59:34+00:00	25.2%	82.1%	47.7%	64.6%	18.2%
2026-10-01T13:44:44+00:00	38.3%	82.1%	47.7%	64.6%	18.2%
2026-10-01T14:32:56+00:00	38.3%	82.1%	47.7%	64.6%	18.2%
2026-10-01T15:18:10+00:00	38.3%	83.0%	47.7%	64.6%	18.2%
2026-10-01T16:03:42+00:00	38.3%	83.0%	47.7%	64.6%	18.2%
2026-10-01T16:48:48+00:00	38.3%	83.0%	47.7%	64.6%	18.2%
2026-10-01T17:33:57+00:00	38.3%	83.0%	40.8%	64.6%	18.2%
2026-10-01T18:19:03+00:00	38.3%	83.0%	40.8%	64.6%	18.2%
2026-10-01T19:04:08+00:00	38.3%	83.0%	40.8%	64.6%	18.2%
2026-10-01T19:49:13+00:00	17.3%	83.0%	40.8%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-01T20:34:24+00:00	17.3%	83.0%	40.8%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-01T21:19:30+00:00	17.3%	83.0%	40.8%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-01T22:04:40+00:00	17.3%	83.0%	40.8%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-01T22:49:47+00:00	17.3%	83.0%	40.8%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-01T23:34:52+00:00	17.3%	83.0%	31.1%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-02T00:19:58+00:00	17.3%	83.0%	31.1%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-02T01:05:07+00:00	17.3%	83.0%	31.1%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-02T01:50:22+00:00	24.4%	83.0%	31.1%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-02T02:35:39+00:00	24.4%	83.0%	31.1%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-02T03:20:55+00:00	24.4%	83.0%	31.1%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-02T04:06:24+00:00	24.4%	83.0%	31.1%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-02T04:51:30+00:00	24.4%	83.0%	31.1%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-02T05:36:46+00:00	24.4%	83.0%	20.0%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-02T06:22:01+00:00	24.4%	83.0%	20.0%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-02T07:07:11+00:00	24.4%	83.0%	20.0%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-02T07:52:21+00:00	18.7%	83.0%	20.0%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-02T08:37:31+00:00	18.7%	83.0%	20.0%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-02T09:22:36+00:00	18.7%	83.0%	20.0%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-02T10:07:43+00:00	18.7%	83.0%	20.0%	34.4%	18.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	83%	92.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	89.1°F	4.4°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	41%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	88.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	86.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	86.8°F	3.0°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	86.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261002-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 25 · 19:39 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗