— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
72¢
ndfd
56¢
rrfs
42¢
nbm
32¢
hres
25¢
wn2
22¢
aifs
17¢
hrrr
17¢
icon
12¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
82–83°F1¢
84–85°F5¢
86–87°F14¢
88–89°F25¢
90–91°F27¢
92–93°F18¢
94–95°F7¢
96–97°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,573 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.555 vs climatology 9.053.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261002-TMAX-GE91 · opened 2026-09-29T04:21:23+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape