KBNA / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 02 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

25%

22%

17%

12%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 41.6¢Risks 41.65u

ICONNO 58.4¢Risks 58.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +58.35u · ICON −58.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T02:35:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-29T04:21:23+00:00	18.8%	88.0%	35.2%	71.1%	14.5%
2026-09-29T05:06:54+00:00	18.8%	88.0%	47.0%	71.1%	9.5%
2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00	18.8%	88.0%	47.0%	71.1%	9.5%
2026-09-29T06:37:09+00:00	18.8%	88.0%	47.0%	71.1%	9.5%
2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:00	16.8%	88.0%	47.0%	62.2%	9.5%
2026-09-29T08:08:16+00:00	16.8%	88.0%	47.0%	62.2%	9.5%
2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00	16.8%	88.0%	47.0%	62.2%	9.5%
2026-09-29T09:38:37+00:00	16.8%	88.0%	47.0%	62.2%	9.5%
2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:00	16.8%	88.0%	47.0%	62.2%	9.5%
2026-09-29T11:08:51+00:00	16.8%	85.7%	47.0%	62.2%	9.5%
2026-09-29T11:54:06+00:00	16.8%	85.7%	47.0%	62.2%	9.5%
2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00	16.8%	85.7%	47.0%	62.2%	9.5%
2026-09-29T13:24:16+00:00	40.9%	85.7%	47.0%	62.2%	9.5%
2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:00	40.9%	85.6%	47.0%	62.2%	9.5%
2026-09-29T14:56:55+00:00	40.9%	85.6%	47.0%	62.2%	9.5%
2026-09-29T15:42:15+00:00	40.9%	85.7%	47.0%	62.2%	9.5%
2026-09-29T16:27:41+00:00	40.9%	85.7%	47.0%	62.2%	39.9%
2026-09-29T17:12:51+00:00	40.9%	85.7%	43.6%	62.2%	39.9%
2026-09-29T17:57:58+00:00	40.9%	85.7%	43.6%	62.2%	39.9%
2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00	40.9%	85.7%	43.6%	62.2%	39.9%
2026-09-29T19:28:13+00:00	27.5%	85.7%	43.6%	19.9%	39.9%
2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:00	27.5%	85.7%	43.6%	19.9%	39.9%
2026-09-29T20:58:47+00:00	27.5%	85.7%	43.6%	19.9%	39.9%
2026-09-29T21:43:55+00:00	27.5%	85.7%	43.6%	19.9%	39.9%
2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:00	27.5%	85.7%	43.6%	19.9%	39.9%
2026-09-29T23:14:14+00:00	27.5%	85.7%	35.3%	19.9%	39.9%
2026-09-29T23:59:27+00:00	27.5%	85.7%	35.3%	19.9%	39.9%
2026-09-30T00:44:33+00:00	27.5%	85.7%	35.3%	19.9%	39.9%
2026-09-30T01:29:51+00:00	27.5%	85.7%	35.3%	19.9%	39.9%
2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:00	27.5%	85.7%	35.3%	19.9%	39.9%
2026-09-30T03:00:08+00:00	27.5%	85.7%	35.3%	19.9%	39.9%
2026-09-30T03:45:22+00:00	27.5%	85.7%	35.3%	19.9%	39.9%
2026-09-30T04:30:39+00:00	27.5%	85.7%	35.3%	19.9%	33.5%
2026-09-30T05:16:19+00:00	27.5%	85.7%	46.8%	19.9%	33.5%
2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00	27.5%	85.7%	46.8%	19.9%	33.5%
2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00	27.5%	85.7%	46.8%	19.9%	33.5%
2026-09-30T07:31:59+00:00	27.5%	85.7%	46.8%	22.5%	33.5%
2026-09-30T08:18:13+00:00	27.5%	85.7%	46.8%	22.5%	33.5%
2026-09-30T09:03:35+00:00	27.5%	85.7%	46.8%	22.5%	33.5%
2026-09-30T09:48:41+00:00	27.5%	85.7%	46.8%	22.5%	33.5%
2026-09-30T10:34:40+00:00	16.8%	85.7%	46.8%	22.5%	33.5%
2026-09-30T11:19:59+00:00	16.8%	79.7%	38.9%	22.5%	33.5%
2026-09-30T12:05:14+00:00	16.8%	79.7%	38.9%	22.5%	33.5%
2026-09-30T12:50:19+00:00	16.8%	79.7%	38.9%	22.5%	33.5%
2026-09-30T13:35:29+00:00	21.4%	79.7%	38.9%	22.5%	33.5%
2026-09-30T14:23:08+00:00	21.4%	79.7%	38.9%	22.5%	33.5%
2026-09-30T15:08:15+00:00	21.4%	79.6%	38.9%	22.5%	33.5%
2026-10-01T15:18:10+00:00	29.3%	71.7%	36.4%	54.3%	11.6%
2026-10-01T16:03:42+00:00	29.3%	71.7%	36.4%	54.3%	11.6%
2026-10-01T16:48:48+00:00	29.3%	71.7%	36.4%	54.3%	11.6%
2026-10-01T17:33:57+00:00	29.3%	71.7%	30.1%	54.3%	11.6%
2026-10-01T18:19:03+00:00	29.3%	71.7%	30.1%	54.3%	11.6%
2026-10-01T19:04:08+00:00	29.3%	71.7%	30.1%	54.3%	11.6%
2026-10-01T19:49:13+00:00	11.7%	71.7%	30.1%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-01T20:34:24+00:00	11.7%	71.7%	30.1%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-01T21:19:30+00:00	11.7%	71.7%	30.1%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-01T22:04:40+00:00	11.7%	71.7%	30.1%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-01T22:49:47+00:00	11.7%	71.7%	30.1%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-01T23:34:52+00:00	11.7%	71.7%	21.7%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-02T00:19:58+00:00	11.7%	71.7%	21.7%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-02T01:05:07+00:00	11.7%	71.7%	21.7%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-02T01:50:22+00:00	17.3%	71.7%	21.7%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-02T02:35:39+00:00	17.3%	71.7%	21.7%	25.1%	11.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	72%	92.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	91.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-01 14:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	88.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-01 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	88.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	87.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	86.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
ICON	12%	86.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261002-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 29 · 04:21 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗