— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
96¢
aifs
91¢
wn2
84¢
hres
73¢
icon
62¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
51¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F2¢
72–73°F6¢
74–75°F12¢
76–77°F18¢
78–79°F21¢
80–81°F18¢
82–83°F12¢
84–85°F6¢
86–87°F2¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 13,327 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.505 vs climatology 9.066.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261005-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-09-28T07:59:29+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape