KBNA / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 01 · 02:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

91%

84%

73%

62%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 79.0¢Risks 79.00u

ICONNO 21.0¢Risks 21.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +21.00u · ICON −21.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T02:26:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-28T07:59:29+00:00	63.4%	88.0%	67.7%	70.4%	58.5%
2026-09-28T08:45:28+00:00	63.4%	88.0%	67.7%	70.4%	58.5%
2026-09-28T09:30:33+00:00	63.4%	88.0%	67.7%	70.4%	58.5%
2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00	63.4%	88.0%	67.7%	70.4%	58.5%
2026-09-28T11:00:49+00:00	63.4%	86.5%	80.6%	70.4%	58.5%
2026-09-28T11:46:05+00:00	63.4%	86.5%	80.6%	70.4%	58.5%
2026-09-28T12:31:12+00:00	63.4%	86.5%	80.6%	70.4%	58.5%
2026-09-28T13:16:21+00:00	63.4%	86.5%	80.6%	70.4%	58.5%
2026-09-28T14:01:27+00:00	83.9%	86.5%	80.6%	70.4%	58.5%
2026-09-28T14:48:35+00:00	83.9%	86.5%	80.6%	70.4%	58.5%
2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00	83.9%	86.9%	80.6%	70.4%	58.5%
2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00	83.9%	86.9%	80.6%	70.4%	58.5%
2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00	83.9%	86.9%	89.5%	70.4%	43.5%
2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00	83.9%	86.9%	89.5%	70.4%	43.5%
2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00	83.9%	86.9%	89.5%	70.4%	43.5%
2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00	83.9%	86.9%	89.5%	70.4%	43.5%
2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00	59.2%	86.9%	89.5%	84.7%	43.5%
2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00	59.2%	86.9%	89.5%	84.7%	43.5%
2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00	59.2%	86.9%	89.5%	84.7%	43.5%
2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00	59.2%	86.9%	89.5%	84.7%	43.5%
2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00	59.2%	86.9%	87.1%	84.7%	43.5%
2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00	59.2%	86.9%	87.1%	84.7%	43.5%
2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:00	59.2%	86.9%	87.1%	84.7%	43.5%
2026-09-29T01:20:27+00:00	59.2%	86.9%	87.1%	84.7%	43.5%
2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00	73.0%	86.9%	87.1%	84.7%	43.5%
2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00	73.0%	86.9%	87.1%	84.7%	43.5%
2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00	73.0%	86.9%	87.1%	84.7%	43.5%
2026-09-29T04:21:24+00:00	73.0%	86.9%	87.1%	84.7%	43.5%
2026-09-29T05:06:54+00:00	73.0%	86.9%	77.6%	84.7%	84.2%
2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00	73.0%	86.9%	77.6%	84.7%	84.2%
2026-09-29T06:37:09+00:00	73.0%	86.9%	77.6%	84.7%	84.2%
2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:00	90.6%	86.9%	77.6%	63.0%	84.2%
2026-09-29T08:08:16+00:00	90.6%	86.9%	77.6%	63.0%	84.2%
2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00	90.6%	86.9%	77.6%	63.0%	84.2%
2026-09-29T09:38:37+00:00	90.6%	86.9%	77.6%	63.0%	84.2%
2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:00	90.6%	86.9%	77.6%	63.0%	84.2%
2026-09-29T11:08:51+00:00	90.6%	82.9%	77.6%	63.0%	84.2%
2026-09-29T11:54:06+00:00	90.6%	82.9%	77.6%	63.0%	84.2%
2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00	90.6%	82.9%	77.6%	63.0%	84.2%
2026-09-29T13:24:16+00:00	83.2%	82.9%	77.6%	63.0%	84.2%
2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:00	83.2%	82.9%	77.6%	62.4%	84.2%
2026-09-29T14:56:55+00:00	83.2%	83.4%	77.6%	62.4%	84.2%
2026-09-30T15:53:29+00:00	93.6%	96.5%	91.3%	89.3%	77.1%
2026-09-30T16:38:49+00:00	93.6%	96.5%	91.3%	89.3%	61.5%
2026-09-30T17:23:57+00:00	93.6%	96.5%	87.3%	89.3%	61.5%
2026-09-30T18:09:04+00:00	93.6%	96.5%	87.3%	89.3%	61.5%
2026-09-30T18:54:13+00:00	93.6%	96.5%	87.3%	89.3%	61.5%
2026-09-30T19:39:19+00:00	95.0%	96.5%	87.3%	73.3%	61.5%
2026-09-30T20:24:32+00:00	95.0%	96.5%	87.3%	73.3%	61.5%
2026-09-30T21:09:38+00:00	95.0%	96.5%	87.3%	73.3%	61.5%
2026-09-30T21:54:44+00:00	95.0%	96.5%	87.3%	73.3%	61.5%
2026-09-30T22:39:50+00:00	95.0%	96.5%	87.3%	73.3%	61.5%
2026-09-30T23:24:55+00:00	95.0%	96.5%	84.1%	73.3%	61.5%
2026-10-01T00:10:15+00:00	95.0%	96.5%	84.1%	73.3%	61.5%
2026-10-01T00:55:50+00:00	95.0%	96.5%	84.1%	73.3%	61.5%
2026-10-01T01:40:55+00:00	91.3%	96.5%	84.1%	73.3%	61.5%
2026-10-01T02:26:03+00:00	91.3%	96.5%	84.1%	73.3%	61.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	80.1°F	3.1°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	81.2°F	4.9°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	78.7°F	4.2°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	78.1°F	5.8°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
ICON	62%	76.2°F	5.8°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-30 15:00	Pending
National Blend	51%	74.6°F	4.4°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261005-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 28 · 07:59 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗