— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
12¢
wn2
7¢
ndfd
5¢
eps
3¢
icon
3¢
hres
2¢
nbm
1¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F2¢
72–73°F5¢
74–75°F11¢
76–77°F17¢
78–79°F21¢
80–81°F19¢
82–83°F13¢
84–85°F7¢
86–87°F3¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 13,327 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.505 vs climatology 9.066.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261005-TMAX-GE87 · opened 2026-09-28T07:59:29+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape