KBNA / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 03 · 02:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 7.1¢Risks 3.55u

HRESNO 92.9¢Risks 46.45u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.45u · HRES −46.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-28T07:59:29+00:00	3.5%	14.4%	3.3%	8.8%	15.6%
2026-09-28T08:45:28+00:00	3.5%	14.4%	3.3%	8.8%	15.6%
2026-09-28T09:30:33+00:00	3.5%	14.4%	3.3%	8.8%	15.6%
2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00	3.5%	14.4%	3.3%	8.8%	15.6%
2026-09-28T11:00:49+00:00	3.5%	16.7%	5.5%	8.8%	15.6%
2026-09-28T11:46:05+00:00	3.5%	16.7%	5.5%	8.8%	15.6%
2026-09-28T12:31:12+00:00	3.5%	16.7%	5.5%	8.8%	15.6%
2026-09-28T13:16:21+00:00	3.5%	16.7%	5.5%	8.8%	15.6%
2026-09-28T14:01:27+00:00	12.1%	16.7%	5.5%	8.8%	15.5%
2026-09-28T14:48:35+00:00	12.1%	16.7%	5.5%	8.8%	15.5%
2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00	12.1%	17.1%	5.5%	8.8%	15.5%
2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00	12.1%	17.1%	5.5%	8.8%	15.5%
2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00	12.1%	17.1%	11.3%	8.8%	8.2%
2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00	12.1%	17.1%	11.3%	8.8%	8.2%
2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00	12.1%	17.1%	11.3%	8.8%	8.2%
2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00	12.1%	17.1%	11.3%	8.8%	8.2%
2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00	2.7%	17.1%	11.3%	19.3%	8.2%
2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00	2.7%	17.1%	11.3%	19.3%	8.2%
2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00	2.7%	17.1%	11.3%	19.3%	8.2%
2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00	2.7%	17.1%	11.3%	19.3%	8.2%
2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00	2.7%	17.1%	9.1%	19.3%	8.2%
2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00	2.7%	17.1%	9.1%	19.3%	8.2%
2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:00	2.7%	17.1%	9.1%	19.3%	8.2%
2026-09-29T01:20:27+00:00	2.7%	17.1%	9.1%	19.3%	8.2%
2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00	6.1%	17.1%	9.1%	19.3%	8.2%
2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00	6.1%	17.1%	9.1%	19.3%	8.2%
2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00	6.1%	17.1%	9.1%	19.3%	8.2%
2026-09-29T04:21:24+00:00	6.1%	17.1%	9.1%	19.3%	8.2%
2026-09-29T05:06:54+00:00	6.1%	17.1%	4.4%	19.3%	22.9%
2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00	6.1%	17.1%	4.4%	19.3%	22.9%
2026-09-29T06:37:09+00:00	6.1%	17.1%	4.4%	19.3%	22.9%
2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:00	17.3%	17.1%	4.4%	7.0%	22.9%
2026-09-29T08:08:16+00:00	17.3%	17.1%	4.4%	7.0%	22.9%
2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00	17.3%	17.1%	4.4%	7.0%	22.9%
2026-09-29T09:38:37+00:00	17.3%	17.1%	4.4%	7.0%	22.9%
2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:00	17.3%	17.1%	4.4%	7.0%	22.9%
2026-09-29T11:08:51+00:00	17.3%	5.0%	4.4%	7.0%	22.9%
2026-09-29T11:54:06+00:00	17.3%	5.0%	4.4%	7.0%	22.9%
2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00	17.3%	5.0%	4.4%	7.0%	22.9%
2026-09-29T13:24:16+00:00	9.7%	5.0%	4.4%	7.0%	22.9%
2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:00	9.6%	5.1%	4.4%	6.7%	22.9%
2026-09-29T14:56:55+00:00	9.6%	5.3%	4.4%	6.7%	22.9%
2026-09-29T15:42:16+00:00	9.6%	5.3%	4.4%	6.7%	22.9%
2026-09-29T16:27:41+00:00	9.6%	5.3%	4.4%	6.7%	2.9%
2026-09-29T17:12:51+00:00	9.6%	5.3%	5.4%	6.7%	2.9%
2026-09-29T17:57:58+00:00	9.6%	5.3%	5.4%	6.7%	2.9%
2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00	9.6%	5.3%	5.4%	6.7%	2.9%
2026-09-29T19:28:13+00:00	17.8%	5.3%	5.4%	1.7%	2.9%
2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:00	17.8%	5.3%	5.4%	1.7%	2.9%
2026-09-29T20:58:47+00:00	17.8%	5.3%	5.4%	1.7%	2.9%
2026-09-29T21:43:55+00:00	17.8%	5.3%	5.4%	1.7%	2.9%
2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:00	17.8%	5.3%	5.4%	1.7%	2.9%
2026-09-29T23:14:14+00:00	17.8%	5.5%	4.1%	1.7%	2.9%
2026-09-29T23:59:27+00:00	17.8%	5.5%	4.1%	1.7%	2.9%
2026-09-30T00:44:33+00:00	17.8%	5.5%	4.1%	1.7%	2.9%
2026-09-30T01:29:51+00:00	24.3%	5.5%	4.1%	1.7%	2.9%
2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:00	24.3%	5.5%	4.1%	1.7%	2.9%
2026-09-30T03:00:08+00:00	24.3%	5.5%	4.1%	1.7%	2.9%
2026-09-30T03:45:22+00:00	24.3%	5.5%	4.1%	1.7%	2.9%
2026-09-30T04:30:39+00:00	24.3%	5.5%	4.1%	1.7%	9.3%
2026-09-30T05:16:19+00:00	24.3%	5.5%	7.0%	1.7%	9.3%
2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00	24.3%	5.5%	7.0%	1.7%	9.3%
2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00	24.3%	5.5%	7.0%	1.7%	9.3%
2026-09-30T07:31:59+00:00	24.3%	5.5%	7.0%	20.4%	9.3%
2026-09-30T08:18:13+00:00	24.3%	5.5%	7.0%	20.4%	9.3%
2026-09-30T09:03:35+00:00	24.3%	5.5%	7.0%	20.4%	9.3%
2026-09-30T09:48:41+00:00	24.3%	5.5%	7.0%	20.4%	9.3%
2026-09-30T10:34:41+00:00	23.2%	5.5%	7.0%	20.4%	9.3%
2026-09-30T11:19:59+00:00	23.2%	1.8%	6.7%	20.4%	9.3%
2026-09-30T12:05:14+00:00	23.2%	1.8%	6.7%	20.4%	9.3%
2026-09-30T12:50:19+00:00	23.2%	1.8%	6.7%	20.4%	9.3%
2026-09-30T13:35:29+00:00	18.0%	1.8%	6.7%	20.4%	9.3%
2026-09-30T14:23:08+00:00	18.0%	1.8%	6.7%	20.4%	9.2%
2026-09-30T15:08:15+00:00	18.0%	1.9%	6.7%	20.4%	9.2%
2026-09-30T15:53:29+00:00	18.0%	1.9%	6.7%	20.4%	9.2%
2026-09-30T16:38:49+00:00	18.0%	1.9%	6.7%	20.4%	3.8%
2026-09-30T17:23:57+00:00	18.0%	1.9%	4.3%	20.4%	3.8%
2026-09-30T18:09:04+00:00	18.0%	1.9%	4.3%	20.4%	3.8%
2026-09-30T18:54:13+00:00	18.0%	1.9%	4.3%	20.4%	3.8%
2026-09-30T19:39:19+00:00	21.4%	1.9%	4.3%	7.4%	3.8%
2026-09-30T20:24:32+00:00	21.4%	1.9%	4.3%	7.4%	3.8%
2026-09-30T21:09:38+00:00	21.4%	1.9%	4.3%	7.4%	3.8%
2026-09-30T21:54:44+00:00	21.4%	1.9%	4.3%	7.4%	3.8%
2026-09-30T22:39:50+00:00	21.4%	1.9%	4.3%	7.4%	3.8%
2026-09-30T23:24:55+00:00	21.4%	1.9%	3.2%	7.4%	3.8%
2026-10-01T00:10:15+00:00	21.4%	1.9%	3.2%	7.4%	3.8%
2026-10-01T00:55:50+00:00	21.4%	1.9%	3.2%	7.4%	3.8%
2026-10-01T03:11:23+00:00	14.1%	1.9%	3.2%	7.4%	3.8%
2026-10-01T03:57:03+00:00	14.1%	1.9%	3.2%	7.4%	3.8%
2026-10-01T04:42:09+00:00	14.1%	1.9%	3.2%	7.4%	3.8%
2026-10-01T05:27:13+00:00	14.1%	1.9%	3.7%	7.4%	3.8%
2026-10-01T06:12:19+00:00	14.1%	1.9%	3.7%	7.4%	3.8%
2026-10-01T06:57:24+00:00	14.1%	1.9%	3.7%	7.4%	3.8%
2026-10-01T07:42:48+00:00	11.7%	1.9%	3.7%	4.3%	3.8%
2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00	11.7%	1.9%	3.7%	4.3%	3.8%
2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00	11.7%	1.9%	3.7%	4.3%	3.8%
2026-10-01T09:58:54+00:00	11.7%	1.9%	3.7%	4.3%	3.8%
2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00	11.7%	1.9%	3.7%	4.3%	3.8%
2026-10-02T05:36:46+00:00	11.3%	2.0%	13.3%	2.3%	3.8%
2026-10-02T06:22:01+00:00	11.3%	2.0%	13.3%	2.3%	3.8%
2026-10-02T07:07:11+00:00	11.3%	2.0%	13.3%	2.3%	3.8%
2026-10-02T07:52:21+00:00	12.1%	2.0%	13.3%	2.3%	3.8%
2026-10-02T08:37:31+00:00	12.1%	2.0%	13.3%	2.3%	3.8%
2026-10-02T09:22:36+00:00	12.1%	2.0%	13.3%	2.3%	3.8%
2026-10-02T10:07:43+00:00	12.1%	2.0%	13.3%	2.3%	3.8%
2026-10-02T13:55:56+00:00	13.4%	2.7%	8.9%	1.5%	3.8%
2026-10-02T14:44:22+00:00	13.4%	2.7%	6.3%	1.5%	3.8%
2026-10-02T15:29:52+00:00	13.4%	2.9%	6.3%	1.5%	3.8%
2026-10-02T16:15:00+00:00	13.4%	2.9%	6.3%	1.5%	3.8%
2026-10-02T17:00:11+00:00	13.4%	2.9%	7.1%	1.5%	2.7%
2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00	13.4%	2.9%	7.1%	1.5%	2.7%
2026-10-02T18:30:28+00:00	13.4%	2.9%	7.1%	1.5%	2.7%
2026-10-02T19:15:34+00:00	13.4%	2.9%	7.1%	1.5%	2.7%
2026-10-02T20:00:41+00:00	12.9%	2.9%	7.1%	1.5%	2.7%
2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00	12.9%	2.9%	7.1%	1.5%	2.7%
2026-10-02T21:30:57+00:00	12.9%	2.9%	7.1%	1.5%	2.7%
2026-10-02T22:16:30+00:00	12.9%	2.9%	7.1%	1.5%	2.7%
2026-10-02T23:01:44+00:00	12.9%	3.1%	6.7%	1.7%	2.7%
2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00	12.9%	3.1%	6.7%	1.7%	2.7%
2026-10-03T00:31:59+00:00	12.9%	3.1%	6.7%	1.7%	2.7%
2026-10-03T01:17:14+00:00	12.9%	3.1%	6.7%	1.7%	2.7%
2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00	12.5%	3.1%	6.7%	1.7%	2.7%
2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00	12.5%	3.1%	6.7%	1.7%	2.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	12%	81.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	81.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-02 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	80.5°F	3.2°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
ICON	3%	79.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	79.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261005-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 28 · 07:59 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗