— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
94¢
rrfs
90¢
eps
86¢
nbm
82¢
hres
64¢
aifs
58¢
wn2
57¢
icon
40¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
80–81°F1¢
82–83°F3¢
84–85°F12¢
86–87°F24¢
88–89°F29¢
90–91°F20¢
92–93°F9¢
94–95°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,887 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.524 vs climatology 8.977.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261009-TMAX-GE86 · opened 2026-10-02T13:55:56+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape