KBNA / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 09 · 07:05 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

64%

58%

57%

40%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 63.1¢Risks 63.05u

ICONNO 36.9¢Risks 36.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +36.95u · ICON −36.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T07:05:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-02T13:55:56+00:00	74.7%	43.4%	37.9%	65.9%	—
2026-10-02T14:44:22+00:00	74.7%	43.4%	38.8%	65.9%	—
2026-10-02T15:29:52+00:00	74.7%	44.5%	38.8%	65.9%	—
2026-10-02T16:15:00+00:00	74.7%	44.5%	38.8%	65.9%	—
2026-10-02T17:00:11+00:00	74.7%	44.5%	48.4%	65.9%	56.5%
2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00	74.7%	44.5%	48.4%	65.9%	56.5%
2026-10-02T18:30:28+00:00	74.7%	44.5%	48.4%	65.9%	56.5%
2026-10-02T19:15:34+00:00	74.7%	44.5%	48.4%	65.9%	56.5%
2026-10-02T20:00:41+00:00	75.8%	44.5%	48.4%	65.9%	56.5%
2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00	75.8%	44.5%	48.4%	65.9%	56.5%
2026-10-02T21:30:57+00:00	75.8%	44.5%	48.4%	65.9%	56.5%
2026-10-02T22:16:30+00:00	75.8%	44.5%	48.4%	65.9%	56.5%
2026-10-02T23:01:44+00:00	75.8%	44.5%	50.0%	69.3%	56.5%
2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00	75.8%	44.5%	50.0%	69.3%	56.5%
2026-10-03T00:31:59+00:00	75.8%	44.5%	50.0%	69.3%	56.5%
2026-10-03T01:17:14+00:00	75.8%	44.5%	50.0%	69.3%	56.5%
2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00	69.3%	44.5%	50.0%	69.3%	56.5%
2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00	69.3%	44.5%	50.0%	69.3%	56.5%
2026-10-03T03:33:06+00:00	69.3%	44.5%	50.0%	69.3%	56.5%
2026-10-03T04:18:36+00:00	69.3%	44.5%	50.0%	69.3%	56.5%
2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00	69.3%	44.5%	49.2%	69.3%	56.5%
2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00	69.3%	44.5%	49.2%	69.3%	56.5%
2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00	69.3%	44.5%	49.2%	69.3%	56.5%
2026-10-03T07:18:59+00:00	69.3%	44.5%	49.2%	69.3%	56.5%
2026-10-03T08:04:26+00:00	79.1%	44.5%	49.2%	49.4%	62.0%
2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00	79.1%	44.5%	49.2%	49.4%	62.0%
2026-10-03T09:35:25+00:00	79.1%	44.5%	49.2%	49.4%	62.0%
2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00	79.1%	44.5%	49.2%	49.4%	62.0%
2026-10-03T11:05:43+00:00	79.1%	47.4%	52.7%	49.4%	62.0%
2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00	79.1%	47.4%	52.7%	49.4%	62.0%
2026-10-03T12:36:05+00:00	79.1%	47.4%	52.7%	49.4%	62.0%
2026-10-03T13:21:11+00:00	79.1%	47.4%	52.7%	49.4%	62.0%
2026-10-03T14:09:37+00:00	72.7%	47.4%	52.7%	50.0%	62.0%
2026-10-03T14:54:57+00:00	72.7%	47.4%	52.7%	50.0%	62.0%
2026-10-03T15:40:19+00:00	72.7%	47.4%	52.7%	50.0%	62.0%
2026-10-03T16:25:24+00:00	72.7%	47.4%	52.7%	50.0%	62.0%
2026-10-03T17:10:31+00:00	72.7%	47.4%	52.7%	50.0%	62.0%
2026-10-03T17:55:38+00:00	72.7%	47.4%	52.7%	50.0%	62.0%
2026-10-03T18:40:45+00:00	72.7%	47.4%	52.7%	50.0%	62.0%
2026-10-03T19:25:55+00:00	76.9%	47.4%	52.7%	65.9%	50.6%
2026-10-03T20:11:06+00:00	76.9%	47.4%	52.7%	65.9%	50.6%
2026-10-03T20:56:18+00:00	76.9%	47.4%	52.7%	65.9%	50.6%
2026-10-03T21:41:25+00:00	76.9%	47.4%	52.7%	65.9%	50.6%
2026-10-03T22:26:31+00:00	76.9%	47.4%	52.7%	65.9%	50.6%
2026-10-03T23:11:37+00:00	76.3%	44.9%	53.5%	65.9%	50.6%
2026-10-03T23:56:43+00:00	76.3%	44.9%	53.5%	65.9%	50.6%
2026-10-04T00:41:49+00:00	76.3%	44.9%	53.5%	65.9%	50.6%
2026-10-04T01:27:00+00:00	79.1%	44.9%	53.5%	65.9%	50.6%
2026-10-04T02:12:18+00:00	79.1%	44.9%	53.5%	65.9%	50.6%
2026-10-04T02:57:28+00:00	79.1%	44.9%	53.5%	65.9%	50.6%
2026-10-04T03:43:01+00:00	79.1%	44.9%	53.5%	65.9%	50.6%
2026-10-04T04:28:40+00:00	79.1%	44.9%	53.5%	65.9%	50.6%
2026-10-04T05:13:57+00:00	79.1%	44.9%	50.9%	65.9%	50.6%
2026-10-04T05:59:04+00:00	79.1%	44.9%	50.9%	65.9%	50.6%
2026-10-04T06:44:10+00:00	79.1%	44.9%	50.9%	65.9%	50.6%
2026-10-04T07:29:37+00:00	82.6%	44.9%	50.9%	61.5%	12.4%
2026-10-04T08:15:43+00:00	82.6%	44.9%	50.9%	61.5%	12.4%
2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00	82.6%	44.9%	50.9%	61.5%	12.4%
2026-10-04T09:45:58+00:00	82.6%	44.9%	50.9%	61.5%	12.4%
2026-10-04T10:31:04+00:00	82.6%	44.9%	50.9%	61.5%	12.4%
2026-10-04T11:16:18+00:00	82.6%	64.3%	59.9%	61.5%	12.4%
2026-10-04T12:01:36+00:00	82.6%	64.3%	59.9%	61.5%	12.4%
2026-10-04T12:47:04+00:00	82.6%	64.3%	59.9%	61.5%	12.4%
2026-10-04T13:32:24+00:00	69.5%	64.3%	59.9%	61.5%	12.4%
2026-10-04T14:21:28+00:00	69.4%	64.3%	59.8%	61.5%	12.4%
2026-10-06T15:29:20+00:00	29.0%	73.0%	68.3%	61.8%	18.7%
2026-10-06T16:15:03+00:00	29.0%	73.0%	68.3%	61.8%	18.7%
2026-10-06T17:00:13+00:00	29.0%	73.0%	29.6%	61.8%	18.7%
2026-10-06T17:45:22+00:00	29.0%	73.0%	29.6%	61.8%	18.7%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00	29.0%	73.0%	29.6%	61.8%	18.7%
2026-10-06T19:15:37+00:00	29.0%	73.0%	29.6%	61.8%	18.7%
2026-10-06T20:01:18+00:00	29.8%	73.0%	29.6%	74.1%	40.9%
2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00	29.8%	73.0%	29.6%	74.1%	40.9%
2026-10-06T21:32:38+00:00	29.8%	73.0%	29.6%	74.1%	40.9%
2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00	29.8%	73.0%	29.6%	74.1%	40.9%
2026-10-06T23:03:04+00:00	29.8%	74.0%	29.6%	74.1%	40.9%
2026-10-06T23:48:39+00:00	29.8%	74.0%	29.6%	74.1%	40.9%
2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00	29.8%	74.0%	29.6%	74.1%	40.9%
2026-10-07T01:19:08+00:00	29.8%	74.0%	29.6%	74.1%	40.9%
2026-10-07T02:04:27+00:00	40.0%	74.0%	29.6%	74.1%	40.9%
2026-10-07T02:49:36+00:00	40.0%	74.0%	29.6%	74.1%	40.9%
2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:00	40.0%	74.0%	29.6%	74.1%	40.9%
2026-10-07T04:20:10+00:00	40.0%	74.0%	29.6%	74.1%	40.9%
2026-10-07T05:06:57+00:00	40.0%	74.0%	73.4%	74.1%	40.9%
2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00	40.0%	74.0%	73.4%	74.1%	40.9%
2026-10-07T06:37:41+00:00	40.0%	74.0%	73.4%	74.1%	40.9%
2026-10-07T07:23:29+00:00	51.0%	74.0%	73.4%	86.9%	52.3%
2026-10-07T08:09:26+00:00	51.0%	74.0%	73.4%	86.9%	52.3%
2026-10-07T08:54:46+00:00	51.0%	74.0%	73.4%	86.9%	52.3%
2026-10-07T09:39:53+00:00	51.0%	74.0%	73.4%	86.9%	52.3%
2026-10-07T10:25:17+00:00	51.0%	74.0%	73.4%	86.9%	52.3%
2026-10-07T11:10:36+00:00	51.0%	87.3%	57.7%	86.9%	52.3%
2026-10-07T11:56:00+00:00	51.0%	87.3%	57.7%	86.9%	52.3%
2026-10-07T12:41:06+00:00	51.0%	87.3%	57.7%	86.9%	52.3%
2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00	57.7%	87.3%	57.7%	86.9%	52.3%
2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00	57.7%	87.2%	57.7%	86.9%	52.3%
2026-10-07T15:02:40+00:00	57.7%	87.2%	57.7%	86.9%	52.3%
2026-10-07T15:47:46+00:00	57.7%	87.3%	57.7%	86.9%	52.3%
2026-10-07T16:33:12+00:00	57.7%	87.3%	57.7%	86.9%	52.3%
2026-10-07T17:18:46+00:00	57.7%	87.3%	46.1%	86.9%	52.3%
2026-10-07T18:03:54+00:00	57.7%	87.3%	46.1%	86.9%	52.3%
2026-10-07T18:49:00+00:00	57.7%	87.3%	46.1%	86.9%	52.3%
2026-10-07T19:34:09+00:00	65.1%	87.3%	46.1%	78.2%	56.7%
2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00	65.1%	87.3%	46.1%	78.2%	56.7%
2026-10-07T21:04:33+00:00	65.1%	87.3%	46.1%	78.2%	56.7%
2026-10-07T21:50:01+00:00	65.1%	87.3%	46.1%	78.2%	56.7%
2026-10-07T22:35:08+00:00	65.1%	87.3%	46.1%	78.2%	56.7%
2026-10-07T23:20:16+00:00	65.1%	88.5%	48.7%	78.2%	56.7%
2026-10-08T00:05:30+00:00	65.1%	88.5%	48.7%	78.2%	56.7%
2026-10-08T00:50:50+00:00	65.1%	88.5%	48.7%	78.2%	56.7%
2026-10-08T01:36:02+00:00	70.3%	88.5%	48.7%	78.2%	56.7%
2026-10-08T02:21:10+00:00	70.3%	88.5%	48.7%	78.2%	56.7%
2026-10-08T03:06:35+00:00	70.3%	88.5%	48.7%	78.2%	56.7%
2026-10-08T03:52:32+00:00	70.3%	88.5%	48.7%	78.2%	56.7%
2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00	70.3%	88.5%	48.7%	78.2%	56.7%
2026-10-08T05:22:46+00:00	70.3%	88.5%	69.7%	78.2%	56.7%
2026-10-08T06:07:56+00:00	70.3%	88.5%	69.7%	78.2%	56.7%
2026-10-08T06:53:03+00:00	70.3%	88.5%	69.7%	78.2%	56.7%
2026-10-08T07:38:31+00:00	60.8%	88.5%	69.7%	87.5%	53.4%
2026-10-08T08:24:44+00:00	60.8%	88.5%	69.7%	87.5%	53.4%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	60.8%	88.5%	69.7%	87.5%	53.4%
2026-10-08T09:54:57+00:00	60.8%	88.5%	69.7%	87.5%	53.4%
2026-10-08T10:40:04+00:00	60.8%	88.5%	69.7%	87.5%	53.4%
2026-10-08T11:25:22+00:00	60.8%	85.5%	51.4%	87.5%	53.4%
2026-10-08T12:10:43+00:00	60.8%	85.5%	51.4%	87.5%	53.4%
2026-10-08T12:55:50+00:00	60.8%	85.5%	51.4%	87.5%	53.4%
2026-10-08T13:41:04+00:00	60.8%	85.5%	51.4%	87.5%	53.4%
2026-10-08T14:30:26+00:00	53.0%	85.5%	51.4%	87.5%	53.4%
2026-10-08T15:15:57+00:00	53.0%	85.5%	51.4%	87.5%	53.4%
2026-10-08T16:01:33+00:00	53.0%	85.5%	51.4%	87.5%	53.4%
2026-10-08T16:46:39+00:00	53.0%	85.5%	51.4%	87.5%	53.4%
2026-10-08T17:31:45+00:00	53.0%	85.5%	51.4%	87.5%	53.4%
2026-10-08T18:16:50+00:00	53.0%	85.5%	51.4%	87.5%	53.4%
2026-10-08T19:01:55+00:00	53.0%	85.5%	51.4%	87.5%	53.4%
2026-10-08T19:47:02+00:00	61.8%	85.5%	51.4%	63.6%	39.9%
2026-10-08T20:32:13+00:00	61.8%	85.5%	51.4%	63.6%	39.9%
2026-10-08T21:17:25+00:00	61.8%	85.5%	51.4%	63.6%	39.9%
2026-10-08T22:02:31+00:00	61.8%	85.5%	51.4%	63.6%	39.9%
2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00	61.8%	85.5%	51.4%	63.6%	39.9%
2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00	61.8%	86.2%	30.4%	63.6%	39.9%
2026-10-09T00:17:56+00:00	61.8%	86.2%	30.4%	63.6%	39.9%
2026-10-09T01:03:08+00:00	61.8%	86.2%	30.4%	63.6%	39.9%
2026-10-09T01:48:18+00:00	57.9%	86.2%	30.4%	63.6%	39.9%
2026-10-09T02:33:34+00:00	57.9%	86.2%	30.4%	63.6%	39.9%
2026-10-09T03:19:02+00:00	57.9%	86.2%	30.4%	63.6%	39.9%
2026-10-09T04:05:07+00:00	57.9%	86.2%	30.4%	63.6%	39.9%
2026-10-09T04:50:13+00:00	57.9%	86.2%	30.4%	63.6%	39.9%
2026-10-09T05:35:20+00:00	57.9%	86.2%	56.8%	63.6%	39.9%
2026-10-09T06:20:27+00:00	57.9%	86.2%	56.8%	63.6%	39.9%
2026-10-09T07:05:33+00:00	57.9%	86.2%	56.8%	63.6%	39.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	94%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-09 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	89.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
National Blend	82%	88.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	86.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	86.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	86.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
ICON	40%	84.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261009-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 02 · 13:55 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 86°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗