— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
46¢
eps
44¢
ndfd
41¢
nbm
30¢
hres
24¢
aifs
21¢
wn2
12¢
icon
8¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
80–81°F1¢
82–83°F3¢
84–85°F12¢
86–87°F24¢
88–89°F29¢
90–91°F20¢
92–93°F9¢
94–95°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 13,838 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.698 vs climatology 8.977.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261009-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-10-02T10:53:18+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape