KBNA / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 09 · 07:05 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

24%

21%

12%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 26.1¢Risks 26.05u

ICONNO 74.0¢Risks 73.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +73.95u · ICON −73.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T07:05:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-02T10:53:18+00:00	46.4%	10.1%	13.0%	41.3%	—
2026-10-02T11:39:23+00:00	46.4%	10.1%	13.0%	41.3%	—
2026-10-02T12:25:21+00:00	46.4%	10.1%	13.0%	41.3%	—
2026-10-02T13:10:27+00:00	46.4%	10.1%	13.0%	41.3%	—
2026-10-02T13:55:57+00:00	47.8%	10.1%	13.0%	41.3%	—
2026-10-02T14:44:22+00:00	47.8%	10.1%	13.6%	41.3%	—
2026-10-02T15:29:52+00:00	47.8%	10.6%	13.6%	41.3%	—
2026-10-02T16:15:00+00:00	47.8%	10.6%	13.6%	41.3%	—
2026-10-02T17:00:11+00:00	47.8%	10.6%	19.6%	41.3%	40.3%
2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00	47.8%	10.6%	19.6%	41.3%	40.3%
2026-10-02T18:30:28+00:00	47.8%	10.6%	19.6%	41.3%	40.3%
2026-10-02T19:15:34+00:00	47.8%	10.6%	19.6%	41.3%	40.3%
2026-10-02T20:00:41+00:00	49.3%	10.6%	19.6%	41.3%	40.3%
2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00	49.3%	10.6%	19.6%	41.3%	40.3%
2026-10-02T21:30:57+00:00	49.3%	10.6%	19.6%	41.3%	40.3%
2026-10-02T22:16:30+00:00	49.3%	10.6%	19.6%	41.3%	40.3%
2026-10-02T23:01:44+00:00	49.3%	10.6%	20.8%	45.0%	40.3%
2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00	49.3%	10.6%	20.8%	45.0%	40.3%
2026-10-03T00:31:59+00:00	49.3%	10.6%	20.8%	45.0%	40.3%
2026-10-03T01:17:14+00:00	49.3%	10.6%	20.8%	45.0%	40.3%
2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00	41.5%	10.6%	20.8%	45.0%	40.3%
2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00	41.5%	10.6%	20.8%	45.0%	40.3%
2026-10-03T03:33:06+00:00	41.5%	10.6%	20.8%	45.0%	40.3%
2026-10-03T04:18:36+00:00	41.5%	10.6%	20.8%	45.0%	40.3%
2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00	41.5%	10.6%	20.2%	45.0%	40.3%
2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00	41.5%	10.6%	20.2%	45.0%	40.3%
2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00	41.5%	10.6%	20.2%	45.0%	40.3%
2026-10-03T07:18:59+00:00	41.5%	10.6%	20.2%	45.0%	40.3%
2026-10-03T08:04:26+00:00	52.3%	10.6%	20.2%	26.7%	39.2%
2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00	52.3%	10.6%	20.2%	26.7%	39.2%
2026-10-03T09:35:25+00:00	52.3%	10.6%	20.2%	26.7%	39.2%
2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00	52.3%	10.6%	20.2%	26.7%	39.2%
2026-10-03T11:05:43+00:00	52.3%	8.4%	20.6%	26.7%	39.2%
2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00	52.3%	8.4%	20.6%	26.7%	39.2%
2026-10-03T12:36:05+00:00	52.3%	8.4%	20.6%	26.7%	39.2%
2026-10-03T13:21:11+00:00	52.3%	8.4%	20.6%	26.7%	39.2%
2026-10-03T14:09:37+00:00	44.0%	8.4%	20.5%	27.2%	39.2%
2026-10-03T14:54:57+00:00	44.0%	8.4%	20.5%	27.2%	39.2%
2026-10-03T15:40:19+00:00	44.0%	8.4%	20.5%	27.2%	39.2%
2026-10-03T16:25:24+00:00	44.0%	8.4%	20.5%	27.2%	39.2%
2026-10-03T17:10:31+00:00	44.0%	8.4%	20.5%	27.2%	39.2%
2026-10-03T17:55:38+00:00	44.0%	8.4%	20.5%	27.2%	39.2%
2026-10-03T18:40:45+00:00	44.0%	8.4%	20.5%	27.2%	39.2%
2026-10-03T19:25:55+00:00	49.2%	8.4%	20.5%	42.2%	28.6%
2026-10-03T20:11:06+00:00	49.2%	8.4%	20.5%	42.2%	28.6%
2026-10-03T20:56:18+00:00	49.2%	8.4%	20.5%	42.2%	28.6%
2026-10-03T21:41:25+00:00	49.2%	8.4%	20.5%	42.2%	28.6%
2026-10-03T22:26:31+00:00	49.2%	8.4%	20.5%	42.2%	28.6%
2026-10-03T23:11:37+00:00	48.5%	8.1%	21.2%	42.2%	28.6%
2026-10-03T23:56:43+00:00	48.5%	8.1%	21.2%	42.2%	28.6%
2026-10-04T00:41:49+00:00	48.5%	8.1%	21.2%	42.2%	28.6%
2026-10-04T01:27:00+00:00	52.3%	8.1%	21.2%	42.2%	28.6%
2026-10-04T02:12:18+00:00	52.3%	8.1%	21.2%	42.2%	28.6%
2026-10-04T02:57:28+00:00	52.3%	8.1%	21.2%	42.2%	28.6%
2026-10-04T03:43:01+00:00	52.3%	8.1%	21.2%	42.2%	28.6%
2026-10-04T04:28:40+00:00	52.3%	8.1%	21.2%	42.2%	28.6%
2026-10-04T05:13:57+00:00	52.3%	8.1%	19.3%	42.2%	28.6%
2026-10-04T05:59:04+00:00	52.3%	8.1%	19.3%	42.2%	28.6%
2026-10-04T06:44:10+00:00	52.3%	8.1%	19.3%	42.2%	28.6%
2026-10-04T07:29:37+00:00	54.9%	8.1%	19.3%	34.6%	3.3%
2026-10-04T08:15:43+00:00	54.9%	8.1%	19.3%	34.6%	3.3%
2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00	54.9%	8.1%	19.3%	34.6%	3.3%
2026-10-04T09:45:58+00:00	54.9%	8.1%	19.3%	34.6%	3.3%
2026-10-04T10:31:04+00:00	54.9%	8.1%	19.3%	34.6%	3.3%
2026-10-04T11:16:18+00:00	54.9%	16.7%	22.7%	34.6%	3.3%
2026-10-04T12:01:36+00:00	54.9%	16.7%	22.7%	34.6%	3.3%
2026-10-04T12:47:04+00:00	54.9%	16.7%	22.7%	34.6%	3.3%
2026-10-04T13:32:24+00:00	38.0%	16.7%	22.7%	34.6%	3.3%
2026-10-04T14:21:28+00:00	38.0%	16.7%	22.9%	34.6%	3.3%
2026-10-04T15:06:53+00:00	38.0%	16.7%	22.9%	34.6%	3.3%
2026-10-04T15:52:32+00:00	38.0%	16.7%	22.9%	34.6%	3.3%
2026-10-04T16:37:47+00:00	38.0%	16.7%	22.9%	34.6%	3.3%
2026-10-04T17:23:02+00:00	38.0%	16.7%	11.3%	34.6%	3.3%
2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00	38.0%	16.7%	11.3%	34.6%	3.3%
2026-10-04T18:53:28+00:00	38.0%	16.7%	11.3%	34.6%	3.3%
2026-10-04T19:38:36+00:00	53.2%	16.7%	11.3%	27.9%	7.2%
2026-10-04T20:23:45+00:00	53.2%	16.7%	11.3%	27.9%	7.2%
2026-10-04T21:08:55+00:00	53.2%	16.7%	11.3%	27.9%	7.2%
2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00	53.2%	16.7%	11.3%	27.9%	7.2%
2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00	53.2%	16.7%	11.3%	27.9%	7.2%
2026-10-04T23:24:16+00:00	53.2%	16.7%	18.6%	27.9%	7.2%
2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00	53.2%	16.7%	18.6%	27.9%	7.2%
2026-10-05T00:54:37+00:00	53.2%	16.7%	18.6%	27.9%	7.2%
2026-10-05T01:39:44+00:00	46.0%	16.7%	18.6%	27.9%	7.2%
2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00	46.0%	16.7%	18.6%	27.9%	7.2%
2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00	46.0%	16.7%	18.6%	27.9%	7.2%
2026-10-05T03:55:23+00:00	46.0%	16.7%	18.6%	27.9%	7.2%
2026-10-05T04:41:07+00:00	46.0%	16.7%	18.6%	27.9%	7.2%
2026-10-05T05:26:21+00:00	46.0%	16.7%	18.6%	27.9%	7.2%
2026-10-05T06:11:28+00:00	46.0%	16.7%	18.6%	27.9%	7.2%
2026-10-05T06:56:33+00:00	46.0%	16.7%	18.6%	27.9%	7.2%
2026-10-05T07:42:14+00:00	45.7%	16.7%	18.6%	30.9%	15.1%
2026-10-05T08:28:16+00:00	45.7%	16.7%	18.6%	30.9%	15.1%
2026-10-05T09:13:30+00:00	45.7%	16.7%	18.6%	30.9%	15.1%
2026-10-05T09:58:36+00:00	45.7%	16.7%	18.6%	30.9%	15.1%
2026-10-05T10:43:42+00:00	45.7%	16.7%	18.6%	30.9%	15.1%
2026-10-05T11:28:53+00:00	45.7%	23.1%	20.8%	30.9%	15.1%
2026-10-05T12:14:16+00:00	45.7%	23.1%	20.8%	30.9%	15.1%
2026-10-05T12:59:29+00:00	45.7%	23.1%	20.8%	30.9%	15.1%
2026-10-05T13:44:47+00:00	28.7%	23.1%	20.8%	30.9%	15.1%
2026-10-05T14:34:13+00:00	28.7%	23.5%	20.9%	30.9%	15.5%
2026-10-05T15:19:22+00:00	28.7%	18.2%	20.9%	30.9%	15.5%
2026-10-05T16:04:39+00:00	28.7%	18.2%	20.9%	30.9%	15.5%
2026-10-05T16:50:28+00:00	28.7%	18.2%	20.9%	30.9%	15.5%
2026-10-05T17:35:35+00:00	28.7%	18.2%	8.1%	30.9%	15.5%
2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00	28.7%	18.2%	8.1%	30.9%	15.5%
2026-10-05T19:05:49+00:00	28.7%	18.2%	8.1%	30.9%	15.5%
2026-10-05T19:50:56+00:00	27.2%	18.2%	8.1%	30.9%	8.5%
2026-10-05T20:36:05+00:00	27.2%	18.2%	8.1%	30.9%	8.5%
2026-10-05T21:21:24+00:00	27.2%	18.2%	8.1%	30.9%	8.5%
2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00	27.2%	18.2%	8.1%	30.9%	8.5%
2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00	27.2%	18.2%	8.1%	30.9%	8.5%
2026-10-05T23:36:43+00:00	27.2%	18.2%	13.4%	30.9%	8.5%
2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00	27.2%	18.2%	13.4%	30.9%	8.5%
2026-10-06T01:07:03+00:00	27.2%	18.2%	13.4%	30.9%	8.5%
2026-10-06T01:52:09+00:00	24.4%	18.2%	13.4%	30.9%	8.5%
2026-10-06T02:37:19+00:00	24.4%	18.2%	13.4%	30.9%	8.5%
2026-10-06T03:22:27+00:00	24.4%	18.2%	13.4%	30.9%	8.5%
2026-10-06T04:07:51+00:00	24.4%	18.2%	13.4%	30.9%	8.5%
2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00	24.4%	18.2%	26.7%	30.9%	8.5%
2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00	24.4%	18.2%	26.7%	30.9%	8.5%
2026-10-06T06:23:52+00:00	24.4%	18.2%	26.7%	30.9%	8.5%
2026-10-06T07:08:58+00:00	24.4%	18.2%	26.7%	30.9%	8.5%
2026-10-06T07:54:05+00:00	26.7%	18.2%	26.7%	30.9%	2.8%
2026-10-06T08:39:12+00:00	26.7%	18.2%	26.7%	30.9%	2.8%
2026-10-06T09:24:22+00:00	26.7%	18.2%	26.7%	30.9%	2.8%
2026-10-06T10:09:28+00:00	26.7%	18.2%	26.7%	30.9%	2.8%
2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00	26.7%	28.9%	23.8%	30.9%	2.8%
2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00	26.7%	28.9%	23.8%	30.9%	2.8%
2026-10-06T12:24:48+00:00	26.7%	28.9%	23.8%	30.9%	2.8%
2026-10-06T13:09:55+00:00	26.7%	28.9%	23.8%	30.9%	2.8%
2026-10-06T13:55:03+00:00	7.0%	29.0%	23.8%	30.9%	2.8%
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00	7.0%	29.0%	23.8%	30.9%	2.8%
2026-10-06T15:29:20+00:00	7.0%	28.9%	23.8%	30.9%	2.8%
2026-10-06T16:15:03+00:00	7.0%	28.9%	23.8%	30.9%	2.8%
2026-10-06T17:00:13+00:00	7.0%	28.9%	4.2%	30.9%	2.8%
2026-10-06T17:45:22+00:00	7.0%	28.9%	4.2%	30.9%	2.8%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00	7.0%	28.9%	4.2%	30.9%	2.8%
2026-10-06T19:15:37+00:00	7.0%	28.9%	4.2%	30.9%	2.8%
2026-10-06T20:01:18+00:00	7.3%	28.9%	4.2%	40.3%	10.6%
2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00	7.3%	28.9%	4.2%	40.3%	10.6%
2026-10-06T21:32:38+00:00	7.3%	28.9%	4.2%	40.3%	10.6%
2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00	7.3%	28.9%	4.2%	40.3%	10.6%
2026-10-06T23:03:04+00:00	7.3%	29.9%	4.2%	40.3%	10.6%
2026-10-06T23:48:39+00:00	7.3%	29.9%	4.2%	40.3%	10.6%
2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00	7.3%	29.9%	4.2%	40.3%	10.6%
2026-10-07T01:19:08+00:00	7.3%	29.9%	4.2%	40.3%	10.6%
2026-10-07T02:04:27+00:00	11.9%	29.9%	4.2%	40.3%	10.6%
2026-10-07T02:49:36+00:00	11.9%	29.9%	4.2%	40.3%	10.6%
2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:00	11.9%	29.9%	4.2%	40.3%	10.6%
2026-10-07T04:20:10+00:00	11.9%	29.9%	4.2%	40.3%	10.6%
2026-10-07T05:06:57+00:00	11.9%	29.9%	28.6%	40.3%	10.6%
2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00	11.9%	29.9%	28.6%	40.3%	10.6%
2026-10-07T06:37:41+00:00	11.9%	29.9%	28.6%	40.3%	10.6%
2026-10-07T07:23:29+00:00	17.3%	29.9%	28.6%	55.8%	14.2%
2026-10-07T08:09:26+00:00	17.3%	29.9%	28.6%	55.8%	14.2%
2026-10-07T08:54:46+00:00	17.3%	29.9%	28.6%	55.8%	14.2%
2026-10-07T09:39:53+00:00	17.3%	29.9%	28.6%	55.8%	14.2%
2026-10-07T10:25:17+00:00	17.3%	29.9%	28.6%	55.8%	14.2%
2026-10-07T11:10:36+00:00	17.3%	47.6%	13.6%	55.8%	14.2%
2026-10-07T11:56:00+00:00	17.3%	47.6%	13.6%	55.8%	14.2%
2026-10-07T12:41:06+00:00	17.3%	47.6%	13.6%	55.8%	14.2%
2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00	21.9%	47.6%	13.6%	55.8%	14.2%
2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00	21.9%	47.6%	13.6%	55.8%	14.2%
2026-10-07T15:02:40+00:00	21.9%	47.6%	13.6%	55.8%	14.2%
2026-10-07T15:47:46+00:00	21.9%	47.6%	13.6%	55.8%	14.2%
2026-10-07T16:33:12+00:00	21.9%	47.6%	13.6%	55.8%	14.2%
2026-10-07T17:18:46+00:00	21.9%	47.6%	8.3%	55.8%	14.2%
2026-10-07T18:03:54+00:00	21.9%	47.6%	8.3%	55.8%	14.2%
2026-10-07T18:49:00+00:00	21.9%	47.6%	8.3%	55.8%	14.2%
2026-10-07T19:34:09+00:00	28.0%	47.6%	8.3%	42.3%	16.8%
2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00	28.0%	47.6%	8.3%	42.3%	16.8%
2026-10-07T21:04:33+00:00	28.0%	47.6%	8.3%	42.3%	16.8%
2026-10-07T21:50:01+00:00	28.0%	47.6%	8.3%	42.3%	16.8%
2026-10-07T22:35:08+00:00	28.0%	47.6%	8.3%	42.3%	16.8%
2026-10-07T23:20:16+00:00	28.0%	50.0%	9.3%	42.3%	16.8%
2026-10-08T00:05:30+00:00	28.0%	50.0%	9.3%	42.3%	16.8%
2026-10-08T00:50:50+00:00	28.0%	50.0%	9.3%	42.3%	16.8%
2026-10-08T01:36:02+00:00	33.1%	50.0%	9.3%	42.3%	16.8%
2026-10-08T02:21:10+00:00	33.1%	50.0%	9.3%	42.3%	16.8%
2026-10-08T03:06:35+00:00	33.1%	50.0%	9.3%	42.3%	16.8%
2026-10-08T03:52:32+00:00	33.1%	50.0%	9.3%	42.3%	16.8%
2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00	33.1%	50.0%	9.3%	42.3%	16.8%
2026-10-08T05:22:46+00:00	33.1%	50.0%	21.9%	42.3%	16.8%
2026-10-08T06:07:56+00:00	33.1%	50.0%	21.9%	42.3%	16.8%
2026-10-08T06:53:03+00:00	33.1%	50.0%	21.9%	42.3%	16.8%
2026-10-08T07:38:31+00:00	23.4%	50.0%	21.9%	53.2%	14.7%
2026-10-08T08:24:44+00:00	23.4%	50.0%	21.9%	53.2%	14.7%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	23.4%	50.0%	21.9%	53.2%	14.7%
2026-10-08T09:54:57+00:00	23.4%	50.0%	21.9%	53.2%	14.7%
2026-10-08T10:40:04+00:00	23.4%	50.0%	21.9%	53.2%	14.7%
2026-10-08T11:25:22+00:00	23.4%	42.6%	9.2%	53.2%	14.7%
2026-10-08T12:10:43+00:00	23.4%	42.6%	9.2%	53.2%	14.7%
2026-10-08T12:55:50+00:00	23.4%	42.6%	9.2%	53.2%	14.7%
2026-10-08T13:41:04+00:00	23.4%	42.6%	9.2%	53.2%	14.7%
2026-10-08T14:30:26+00:00	17.7%	42.6%	9.2%	53.2%	14.7%
2026-10-08T15:15:57+00:00	17.7%	42.6%	9.2%	53.2%	14.7%
2026-10-08T16:01:33+00:00	17.7%	42.6%	9.2%	53.2%	14.7%
2026-10-08T16:46:39+00:00	17.7%	42.6%	9.2%	53.2%	14.7%
2026-10-08T17:31:45+00:00	17.7%	42.6%	9.2%	53.2%	14.7%
2026-10-08T18:16:50+00:00	17.7%	42.6%	9.2%	53.2%	14.7%
2026-10-08T19:01:55+00:00	17.7%	42.6%	9.2%	53.2%	14.7%
2026-10-08T19:47:02+00:00	24.2%	42.6%	9.2%	23.5%	8.3%
2026-10-08T20:32:13+00:00	24.2%	42.6%	9.2%	23.5%	8.3%
2026-10-08T21:17:25+00:00	24.2%	42.6%	9.2%	23.5%	8.3%
2026-10-08T22:02:31+00:00	24.2%	42.6%	9.2%	23.5%	8.3%
2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00	24.2%	42.6%	9.2%	23.5%	8.3%
2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00	24.2%	43.8%	3.0%	23.5%	8.3%
2026-10-09T00:17:56+00:00	24.2%	43.8%	3.0%	23.5%	8.3%
2026-10-09T01:03:08+00:00	24.2%	43.8%	3.0%	23.5%	8.3%
2026-10-09T01:48:18+00:00	21.2%	43.8%	3.0%	23.5%	8.3%
2026-10-09T02:33:34+00:00	21.2%	43.8%	3.0%	23.5%	8.3%
2026-10-09T03:19:02+00:00	21.2%	43.8%	3.0%	23.5%	8.3%
2026-10-09T04:05:07+00:00	21.2%	43.8%	3.0%	23.5%	8.3%
2026-10-09T04:50:13+00:00	21.2%	43.8%	3.0%	23.5%	8.3%
2026-10-09T05:35:20+00:00	21.2%	43.8%	11.6%	23.5%	8.3%
2026-10-09T06:20:27+00:00	21.2%	43.8%	11.6%	23.5%	8.3%
2026-10-09T07:05:33+00:00	21.2%	43.8%	11.6%	23.5%	8.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	44%	89.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	41%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-09 02:00	Pending
National Blend	30%	88.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	86.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	86.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	86.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
ICON	8%	84.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261009-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 02 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗