— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
100¢
hres
88¢
ndfd
56¢
icon
49¢
nbm
28¢
wn2
23¢
aifs
23¢
rrfs
10¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F2¢
70–71°F9¢
72–73°F24¢
74–75°F32¢
76–77°F22¢
78–79°F8¢
80–81°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,990 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.521 vs climatology 8.948.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-09T03:19:02+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape