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KBNA / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 09 · 14:42 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
HRES
88%
ICON
49%
WN2
23%
AIFS
23%
Consensus
72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 61.3¢Risks 61.30u
VS
AIFSNO 38.7¢Risks 38.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +38.70u · AIFS −38.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 31.3% · 2026-10-09T03:19:02+00:00AIFS Single: 31.3% · 2026-10-09T04:05:07+00:00AIFS Single: 31.3% · 2026-10-09T04:50:13+00:00AIFS Single: 31.3% · 2026-10-09T05:35:20+00:00AIFS Single: 31.3% · 2026-10-09T06:20:27+00:00AIFS Single: 31.3% · 2026-10-09T07:05:33+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-09T07:51:08+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-09T09:22:18+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-09T10:52:30+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-09T11:37:40+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-09T13:08:26+00:00AIFS Single: 22.6% · 2026-10-09T13:53:32+00:00AIFS Single: 22.6% · 2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T03:19:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T04:05:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T04:50:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T05:35:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T06:20:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T07:05:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T07:51:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T09:22:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T10:52:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T11:37:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T13:08:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T13:53:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.8% · 2026-10-09T03:19:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.8% · 2026-10-09T04:05:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.8% · 2026-10-09T04:50:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-09T05:35:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-09T06:20:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-09T07:05:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-09T07:51:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-09T09:22:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-09T10:52:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-09T11:37:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-09T13:08:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-09T13:53:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:00IFS HRES: 19.6% · 2026-10-09T03:19:02+00:00IFS HRES: 19.6% · 2026-10-09T04:05:07+00:00IFS HRES: 19.6% · 2026-10-09T04:50:13+00:00IFS HRES: 19.6% · 2026-10-09T05:35:20+00:00IFS HRES: 19.6% · 2026-10-09T06:20:27+00:00IFS HRES: 19.6% · 2026-10-09T07:05:33+00:00IFS HRES: 87.5% · 2026-10-09T07:51:08+00:00IFS HRES: 87.5% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00IFS HRES: 87.5% · 2026-10-09T09:22:18+00:00IFS HRES: 87.5% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00IFS HRES: 87.5% · 2026-10-09T10:52:30+00:00IFS HRES: 87.5% · 2026-10-09T11:37:40+00:00IFS HRES: 87.5% · 2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00IFS HRES: 87.5% · 2026-10-09T13:08:26+00:00IFS HRES: 87.6% · 2026-10-09T13:53:32+00:00IFS HRES: 87.6% · 2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:00ICON: 67.4% · 2026-10-09T03:19:02+00:00ICON: 67.4% · 2026-10-09T04:05:07+00:00ICON: 67.4% · 2026-10-09T04:50:13+00:00ICON: 67.4% · 2026-10-09T05:35:20+00:00ICON: 67.4% · 2026-10-09T06:20:27+00:00ICON: 67.4% · 2026-10-09T07:05:33+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-09T07:51:08+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-09T09:22:18+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-09T10:52:30+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-09T11:37:40+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-09T13:08:26+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-09T13:53:32+00:00ICON: 48.9% · 2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:0010-09 03:1910-09 09:2210-09 14:42
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-09T03:19:02+00:0031.3%100.0%7.8%19.6%67.4%
2026-10-09T04:05:07+00:0031.3%100.0%7.8%19.6%67.4%
2026-10-09T04:50:13+00:0031.3%100.0%7.8%19.6%67.4%
2026-10-09T05:35:20+00:0031.3%100.0%22.9%19.6%67.4%
2026-10-09T06:20:27+00:0031.3%100.0%22.9%19.6%67.4%
2026-10-09T07:05:33+00:0031.3%100.0%22.9%19.6%67.4%
2026-10-09T07:51:08+00:0027.4%100.0%22.9%87.5%48.9%
2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:0027.4%100.0%22.9%87.5%48.9%
2026-10-09T09:22:18+00:0027.4%100.0%22.9%87.5%48.9%
2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:0027.4%100.0%22.9%87.5%48.9%
2026-10-09T10:52:30+00:0027.4%100.0%22.9%87.5%48.9%
2026-10-09T11:37:40+00:0027.4%100.0%22.9%87.5%48.9%
2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:0027.4%100.0%22.9%87.5%48.9%
2026-10-09T13:08:26+00:0027.4%100.0%22.9%87.5%48.9%
2026-10-09T13:53:32+00:0022.6%100.0%22.9%87.6%48.9%
2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:0022.6%100.0%22.9%87.6%48.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%86.1°F3.2°F2026-10-09 00:00Pending
IFS HRES88%78.8°F3.7°F2026-10-09 00:00Pending
NWS forecast56%75.0°F3.1°F2026-10-09 02:00Pending
ICON49%74.4°F3.5°F2026-10-09 00:00Pending
National Blend28%72.0°F4.4°F2026-10-09 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 223%72.2°F3.1°F2026-10-08 18:00Pending
AIFS Single23%71.5°F4.0°F2026-10-09 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 09 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗