— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
94¢
ndfd
55¢
nbm
32¢
hres
7¢
icon
5¢
aifs
1¢
wn2
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F4¢
72–73°F11¢
74–75°F21¢
76–77°F26¢
78–79°F21¢
80–81°F11¢
82–83°F4¢
84–85°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 13,888 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.696 vs climatology 8.965.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-05T03:55:23+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape