KBNA / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 07 · 15:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

<1%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.0¢Risks 47.05u

WN2NO 53.0¢Risks 52.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.95u · WN2 −52.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T15:47:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-05T03:55:23+00:00	87.9%	79.4%	74.0%	81.4%	58.1%
2026-10-05T04:41:07+00:00	87.9%	79.4%	74.0%	81.4%	58.1%
2026-10-05T05:26:21+00:00	87.9%	79.4%	74.0%	81.4%	58.1%
2026-10-05T06:11:28+00:00	87.9%	79.4%	74.0%	81.4%	58.1%
2026-10-05T06:56:33+00:00	87.9%	79.4%	74.0%	81.4%	58.1%
2026-10-05T07:42:14+00:00	81.4%	79.4%	74.0%	86.5%	23.5%
2026-10-05T08:28:16+00:00	81.4%	79.4%	74.0%	86.5%	23.5%
2026-10-05T09:13:30+00:00	81.4%	79.4%	74.0%	86.5%	23.5%
2026-10-05T09:58:36+00:00	81.4%	79.4%	74.0%	86.5%	23.5%
2026-10-05T10:43:42+00:00	81.4%	79.4%	74.0%	86.5%	23.5%
2026-10-05T11:28:53+00:00	81.4%	83.8%	56.9%	86.5%	23.5%
2026-10-05T12:14:16+00:00	81.4%	83.8%	56.9%	86.5%	23.5%
2026-10-05T12:59:29+00:00	81.4%	83.8%	56.9%	86.5%	23.5%
2026-10-05T13:44:47+00:00	0.2%	83.8%	56.9%	86.5%	23.5%
2026-10-05T14:34:13+00:00	0.2%	83.5%	56.9%	86.5%	24.0%
2026-10-05T15:19:22+00:00	0.2%	77.4%	56.9%	86.5%	24.0%
2026-10-06T15:29:20+00:00	1.4%	89.2%	12.3%	86.5%	21.1%
2026-10-06T16:15:03+00:00	1.4%	89.2%	12.3%	86.5%	21.1%
2026-10-06T17:00:13+00:00	1.4%	89.2%	1.2%	86.5%	21.1%
2026-10-06T17:45:22+00:00	1.4%	89.2%	1.2%	86.5%	21.1%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00	1.4%	89.2%	1.2%	86.5%	21.1%
2026-10-06T19:15:37+00:00	1.4%	89.2%	1.2%	86.5%	21.1%
2026-10-06T20:01:18+00:00	7.9%	89.2%	1.2%	22.4%	7.3%
2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00	7.9%	89.2%	1.2%	22.4%	7.3%
2026-10-06T21:32:38+00:00	7.9%	89.2%	1.2%	22.4%	7.3%
2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00	7.9%	89.2%	1.2%	22.4%	7.3%
2026-10-06T23:03:04+00:00	7.9%	89.7%	0.7%	22.4%	7.3%
2026-10-06T23:48:39+00:00	7.9%	89.7%	0.7%	22.4%	7.3%
2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00	7.9%	89.7%	0.7%	22.4%	7.3%
2026-10-07T01:19:08+00:00	7.9%	89.7%	0.7%	22.4%	7.3%
2026-10-07T02:04:27+00:00	7.6%	89.7%	0.7%	22.4%	7.3%
2026-10-07T02:49:36+00:00	7.6%	89.7%	0.7%	22.4%	7.3%
2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:00	7.6%	89.7%	0.7%	22.4%	7.3%
2026-10-07T04:20:10+00:00	7.6%	89.7%	0.7%	22.4%	7.3%
2026-10-07T05:06:57+00:00	7.6%	89.7%	0.9%	22.4%	7.3%
2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00	7.6%	89.7%	0.9%	22.4%	7.3%
2026-10-07T06:37:41+00:00	7.6%	89.7%	0.9%	22.4%	7.3%
2026-10-07T07:23:29+00:00	3.6%	89.7%	0.9%	7.3%	4.7%
2026-10-07T08:09:26+00:00	3.6%	89.7%	0.9%	7.3%	4.7%
2026-10-07T08:54:46+00:00	3.6%	89.7%	0.9%	7.3%	4.7%
2026-10-07T09:39:53+00:00	3.6%	89.7%	0.9%	7.3%	4.7%
2026-10-07T10:25:17+00:00	3.6%	89.7%	0.9%	7.3%	4.7%
2026-10-07T11:10:36+00:00	3.6%	93.8%	0.3%	7.3%	4.7%
2026-10-07T11:56:00+00:00	3.6%	93.8%	0.3%	7.3%	4.7%
2026-10-07T12:41:06+00:00	3.6%	93.8%	0.3%	7.3%	4.7%
2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00	1.3%	93.8%	0.3%	7.3%	4.7%
2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00	1.3%	93.7%	0.3%	7.3%	4.7%
2026-10-07T15:02:40+00:00	1.3%	93.7%	0.3%	7.3%	4.7%
2026-10-07T15:47:46+00:00	1.3%	93.8%	0.3%	7.3%	4.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	94%	88.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	84.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-07 03:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	80.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	76.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	1%	73.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	74.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 05 · 03:55 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 84°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗