— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
78¢
eps
75¢
ndfd
55¢
nbm
53¢
icon
11¢
wn2
4¢
aifs
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F1¢
72–73°F5¢
74–75°F13¢
76–77°F22¢
78–79°F25¢
80–81°F19¢
82–83°F10¢
84–85°F3¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 13,838 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.698 vs climatology 8.977.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE86 · opened 2026-10-03T11:05:43+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape