KBNA / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

75%

11%

<1%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 39.0¢Risks 39.00u

AIFSNO 61.0¢Risks 61.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +61.00u · AIFS −61.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-03T11:05:43+00:00	71.8%	58.7%	45.9%	27.4%	41.1%
2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00	71.8%	58.7%	45.9%	27.4%	41.1%
2026-10-03T12:36:05+00:00	71.8%	58.7%	45.9%	27.4%	41.1%
2026-10-03T13:21:11+00:00	71.8%	58.7%	45.9%	27.4%	41.1%
2026-10-03T14:09:37+00:00	57.1%	58.7%	45.9%	27.5%	41.0%
2026-10-03T14:54:57+00:00	57.1%	58.7%	45.9%	27.5%	41.0%
2026-10-03T15:40:19+00:00	57.1%	58.7%	45.9%	27.5%	41.0%
2026-10-03T16:25:24+00:00	57.1%	58.7%	45.9%	27.5%	41.0%
2026-10-03T17:10:31+00:00	57.1%	58.7%	34.9%	27.5%	41.0%
2026-10-03T17:55:38+00:00	57.1%	58.7%	34.9%	27.5%	41.0%
2026-10-03T18:40:45+00:00	57.1%	58.7%	34.9%	27.5%	41.0%
2026-10-03T19:25:55+00:00	62.0%	58.7%	34.9%	39.4%	48.4%
2026-10-03T20:11:06+00:00	62.0%	58.7%	34.9%	39.4%	48.4%
2026-10-03T20:56:18+00:00	62.0%	58.7%	34.9%	39.4%	48.4%
2026-10-03T21:41:25+00:00	62.0%	58.7%	34.9%	39.4%	48.4%
2026-10-03T22:26:31+00:00	62.0%	58.7%	34.9%	39.4%	48.4%
2026-10-03T23:11:37+00:00	62.0%	57.2%	53.2%	39.4%	48.4%
2026-10-03T23:56:43+00:00	62.0%	57.2%	53.2%	39.4%	48.4%
2026-10-04T00:41:49+00:00	62.0%	57.2%	53.2%	39.4%	48.4%
2026-10-04T01:27:00+00:00	77.5%	57.2%	53.2%	39.4%	48.4%
2026-10-04T02:12:18+00:00	77.5%	57.2%	53.2%	39.4%	48.4%
2026-10-04T02:57:28+00:00	77.5%	57.2%	53.2%	39.4%	48.4%
2026-10-04T15:06:53+00:00	80.7%	60.1%	49.1%	13.1%	11.4%
2026-10-04T15:52:32+00:00	80.7%	60.1%	49.1%	13.1%	11.4%
2026-10-04T16:37:47+00:00	80.7%	60.1%	49.1%	13.1%	11.4%
2026-10-04T17:23:02+00:00	80.7%	60.1%	30.5%	13.1%	11.4%
2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00	80.7%	60.1%	30.5%	13.1%	11.4%
2026-10-04T18:53:28+00:00	80.7%	60.1%	30.5%	13.1%	11.4%
2026-10-04T19:38:36+00:00	61.9%	60.1%	30.5%	72.3%	46.5%
2026-10-04T20:23:45+00:00	61.9%	60.1%	30.5%	72.3%	46.5%
2026-10-04T21:08:55+00:00	61.9%	60.1%	30.5%	72.3%	46.5%
2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00	61.9%	60.1%	30.5%	72.3%	46.5%
2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00	61.9%	60.1%	30.5%	72.3%	46.5%
2026-10-04T23:24:16+00:00	61.9%	60.1%	57.9%	72.3%	46.5%
2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00	61.9%	60.1%	57.9%	72.3%	46.5%
2026-10-05T00:54:37+00:00	61.9%	60.1%	57.9%	72.3%	46.5%
2026-10-05T01:39:44+00:00	78.6%	60.1%	57.9%	72.3%	46.5%
2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00	78.6%	60.1%	57.9%	72.3%	46.5%
2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00	78.6%	60.1%	57.9%	72.3%	46.5%
2026-10-05T16:04:39+00:00	0.1%	59.2%	37.4%	77.6%	14.6%
2026-10-05T16:50:28+00:00	0.1%	59.2%	37.4%	77.6%	14.6%
2026-10-05T17:35:35+00:00	0.1%	59.2%	2.1%	77.6%	14.6%
2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00	0.1%	59.2%	2.1%	77.6%	14.6%
2026-10-05T19:05:49+00:00	0.1%	59.2%	2.1%	77.6%	14.6%
2026-10-05T19:50:56+00:00	67.3%	59.2%	2.1%	77.6%	38.5%
2026-10-05T20:36:05+00:00	67.3%	59.2%	2.1%	77.6%	38.5%
2026-10-05T21:21:24+00:00	67.3%	59.2%	2.1%	77.6%	38.5%
2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00	67.3%	59.2%	2.1%	77.6%	38.5%
2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00	67.3%	59.2%	2.1%	77.6%	38.5%
2026-10-05T23:36:43+00:00	67.3%	58.2%	22.2%	77.6%	38.5%
2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00	67.3%	58.2%	22.2%	77.6%	38.5%
2026-10-06T01:07:03+00:00	67.3%	58.2%	22.2%	77.6%	38.5%
2026-10-06T01:52:09+00:00	32.0%	58.2%	22.2%	77.6%	38.5%
2026-10-06T02:37:19+00:00	32.0%	58.2%	22.2%	77.6%	38.5%
2026-10-06T03:22:27+00:00	32.0%	58.2%	22.2%	77.6%	38.5%
2026-10-06T04:07:51+00:00	32.0%	58.2%	22.2%	77.6%	38.5%
2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00	32.0%	58.2%	31.1%	77.6%	38.5%
2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00	32.0%	58.2%	31.1%	77.6%	38.5%
2026-10-06T06:23:52+00:00	32.0%	58.2%	31.1%	77.6%	38.5%
2026-10-06T07:08:58+00:00	32.0%	58.2%	31.1%	77.6%	38.5%
2026-10-06T07:54:05+00:00	6.5%	58.2%	31.1%	77.6%	11.0%
2026-10-06T08:39:12+00:00	6.5%	58.2%	31.1%	77.6%	11.0%
2026-10-06T09:24:22+00:00	6.5%	58.2%	31.1%	77.6%	11.0%
2026-10-06T10:09:28+00:00	6.5%	58.2%	31.1%	77.6%	11.0%
2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00	6.5%	75.4%	4.4%	77.6%	11.0%
2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00	6.5%	75.4%	4.4%	77.6%	11.0%
2026-10-06T12:24:48+00:00	6.5%	75.4%	4.4%	77.6%	11.0%
2026-10-06T13:09:55+00:00	6.5%	75.4%	4.4%	77.6%	11.0%
2026-10-06T13:55:03+00:00	0.4%	75.0%	4.4%	77.6%	11.1%
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00	0.4%	75.0%	4.4%	77.6%	11.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	78%	89.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	88.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-06 03:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	86.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
ICON	11%	79.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	79.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	73.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 03 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 86°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗