— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
72¢
aifs
69¢
rrfs
47¢
nbm
41¢
ndfd
41¢
hres
18¢
eps
18¢
icon
9¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F2¢
80–81°F5¢
82–83°F10¢
84–85°F16¢
86–87°F20¢
88–89°F19¢
90–91°F14¢
92–93°F8¢
94–95°F3¢
96–97°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 13,691 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.467 vs climatology 8.977.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261013-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-10-06T20:01:19+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape