KBNA / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 13 · 07:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

69%

18%

18%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 40.2¢Risks 40.25u

ICONNO 59.8¢Risks 59.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +59.75u · ICON −59.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-06T20:01:19+00:00	18.5%	11.2%	9.7%	30.7%	54.5%
2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00	18.5%	11.2%	9.7%	30.7%	54.5%
2026-10-06T21:32:38+00:00	18.5%	11.2%	9.7%	30.7%	54.5%
2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00	18.5%	11.2%	9.7%	30.7%	54.5%
2026-10-06T23:03:04+00:00	18.5%	12.0%	19.7%	30.7%	54.5%
2026-10-06T23:48:39+00:00	18.5%	12.0%	19.7%	30.7%	54.5%
2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00	18.5%	12.0%	19.7%	30.7%	54.5%
2026-10-07T01:19:08+00:00	18.5%	12.0%	19.7%	30.7%	54.5%
2026-10-07T02:04:27+00:00	5.7%	12.0%	19.7%	30.7%	54.5%
2026-10-07T02:49:36+00:00	5.7%	12.0%	19.7%	30.7%	54.5%
2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:00	5.7%	12.0%	19.7%	30.7%	54.5%
2026-10-07T04:20:12+00:00	5.7%	12.0%	19.7%	30.7%	54.5%
2026-10-07T05:06:57+00:00	5.7%	12.0%	3.2%	30.7%	54.5%
2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00	5.7%	12.0%	3.2%	30.7%	54.5%
2026-10-07T06:37:41+00:00	5.7%	12.0%	3.2%	30.7%	54.5%
2026-10-07T07:23:29+00:00	6.3%	12.0%	3.2%	2.2%	66.9%
2026-10-07T08:09:26+00:00	6.3%	12.0%	3.2%	2.2%	66.9%
2026-10-07T08:54:46+00:00	6.3%	12.0%	3.2%	2.2%	66.9%
2026-10-07T09:39:53+00:00	6.3%	12.0%	3.2%	2.2%	66.9%
2026-10-07T10:25:17+00:00	6.3%	12.0%	3.2%	2.2%	66.9%
2026-10-07T11:10:36+00:00	6.3%	5.4%	1.0%	2.2%	66.9%
2026-10-07T11:56:00+00:00	6.3%	5.4%	1.0%	2.2%	66.9%
2026-10-07T12:41:06+00:00	6.3%	5.4%	1.0%	2.2%	66.9%
2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00	39.6%	5.4%	1.0%	2.2%	66.9%
2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00	39.5%	5.5%	1.0%	2.2%	67.3%
2026-10-07T15:02:40+00:00	39.5%	5.5%	1.0%	2.2%	67.3%
2026-10-07T15:47:47+00:00	39.5%	5.4%	1.0%	2.2%	67.3%
2026-10-07T16:33:13+00:00	39.5%	5.4%	1.0%	2.2%	67.3%
2026-10-07T17:18:46+00:00	39.5%	5.4%	6.6%	2.2%	67.3%
2026-10-07T18:03:54+00:00	39.5%	5.4%	6.6%	2.2%	67.3%
2026-10-07T18:49:00+00:00	39.5%	5.4%	6.6%	2.2%	67.3%
2026-10-07T19:34:09+00:00	41.7%	5.4%	6.6%	34.1%	47.1%
2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00	41.7%	5.4%	6.6%	34.1%	47.1%
2026-10-07T21:04:44+00:00	41.7%	5.4%	6.6%	34.1%	47.1%
2026-10-07T21:50:01+00:00	41.7%	5.4%	6.6%	34.1%	47.1%
2026-10-07T22:35:08+00:00	41.7%	5.4%	6.6%	34.1%	47.1%
2026-10-07T23:20:16+00:00	41.7%	6.1%	7.8%	34.1%	47.1%
2026-10-08T00:05:30+00:00	41.7%	6.1%	7.8%	34.1%	47.1%
2026-10-08T00:50:51+00:00	41.7%	6.1%	7.8%	34.1%	47.1%
2026-10-08T01:36:02+00:00	52.3%	6.1%	7.8%	34.1%	47.1%
2026-10-08T02:21:10+00:00	52.3%	6.1%	7.8%	34.1%	47.1%
2026-10-08T03:06:36+00:00	52.3%	6.1%	7.8%	34.1%	47.1%
2026-10-08T03:52:32+00:00	52.3%	6.1%	7.8%	34.1%	47.1%
2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00	52.3%	6.1%	7.8%	34.1%	47.1%
2026-10-08T05:22:46+00:00	52.3%	6.1%	45.6%	34.1%	47.1%
2026-10-08T06:07:56+00:00	52.3%	6.1%	45.6%	34.1%	47.1%
2026-10-08T06:53:03+00:00	52.3%	6.1%	45.6%	34.1%	47.1%
2026-10-08T07:38:31+00:00	55.7%	6.1%	45.6%	43.8%	22.0%
2026-10-08T08:24:44+00:00	55.7%	6.1%	45.6%	43.8%	22.0%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	55.7%	6.1%	45.6%	43.8%	22.0%
2026-10-08T09:54:57+00:00	55.7%	6.1%	45.6%	43.8%	22.0%
2026-10-08T10:40:04+00:00	55.7%	6.1%	45.6%	43.8%	22.0%
2026-10-08T11:25:22+00:00	55.7%	17.5%	53.0%	43.8%	22.0%
2026-10-08T12:10:43+00:00	55.7%	17.5%	53.0%	43.8%	22.0%
2026-10-08T12:55:50+00:00	55.7%	17.5%	53.0%	43.8%	22.0%
2026-10-08T13:41:04+00:00	55.7%	17.5%	53.0%	43.8%	22.0%
2026-10-08T14:30:26+00:00	56.5%	17.5%	53.0%	43.8%	22.0%
2026-10-08T15:15:58+00:00	56.5%	17.5%	53.0%	43.8%	22.0%
2026-10-08T16:01:33+00:00	56.5%	17.5%	53.0%	43.8%	22.0%
2026-10-08T16:46:39+00:00	56.5%	17.5%	53.0%	43.7%	22.0%
2026-10-08T17:31:45+00:00	56.5%	17.5%	53.0%	43.7%	22.0%
2026-10-08T18:16:50+00:00	56.5%	17.5%	53.0%	43.7%	22.0%
2026-10-08T19:01:55+00:00	56.5%	17.5%	53.0%	43.7%	22.0%
2026-10-08T19:47:02+00:00	58.9%	17.5%	53.0%	47.9%	60.8%
2026-10-08T20:32:13+00:00	58.9%	17.5%	53.0%	47.9%	60.8%
2026-10-08T21:17:25+00:00	58.9%	17.5%	53.0%	47.9%	60.8%
2026-10-08T22:02:31+00:00	58.9%	17.5%	53.0%	47.9%	60.8%
2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00	58.9%	17.5%	53.0%	47.9%	60.8%
2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00	58.9%	18.4%	53.0%	47.9%	60.8%
2026-10-09T00:17:56+00:00	58.9%	18.4%	53.0%	47.9%	60.8%
2026-10-09T01:03:08+00:00	58.9%	18.4%	53.0%	47.9%	60.8%
2026-10-09T01:48:18+00:00	58.1%	18.4%	53.0%	47.9%	60.8%
2026-10-09T02:33:34+00:00	58.1%	18.4%	53.0%	47.9%	60.8%
2026-10-09T03:19:03+00:00	58.1%	18.4%	53.0%	47.9%	60.8%
2026-10-09T04:05:07+00:00	58.1%	18.4%	53.0%	47.9%	60.8%
2026-10-09T04:50:13+00:00	58.1%	18.4%	53.0%	47.9%	60.8%
2026-10-09T05:35:20+00:00	58.1%	18.4%	60.8%	47.9%	60.8%
2026-10-09T06:20:27+00:00	58.1%	18.4%	60.8%	47.9%	60.8%
2026-10-09T07:05:33+00:00	58.1%	18.4%	60.8%	47.9%	60.8%
2026-10-09T07:51:08+00:00	58.6%	18.4%	60.8%	35.2%	62.3%
2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00	58.6%	18.4%	60.8%	35.2%	62.3%
2026-10-09T09:22:18+00:00	58.6%	18.4%	60.8%	35.2%	62.3%
2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00	58.6%	18.4%	60.8%	35.2%	62.3%
2026-10-09T10:52:30+00:00	58.6%	18.4%	60.8%	35.2%	62.3%
2026-10-09T11:37:40+00:00	58.6%	18.4%	60.8%	35.2%	62.3%
2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00	58.6%	30.1%	60.8%	35.2%	62.3%
2026-10-09T13:08:26+00:00	58.6%	30.1%	60.8%	35.2%	62.3%
2026-10-09T13:53:32+00:00	56.1%	30.1%	60.8%	35.2%	62.3%
2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:00	56.1%	30.1%	60.8%	35.2%	62.3%
2026-10-09T15:27:27+00:00	56.1%	31.6%	60.8%	35.2%	62.3%
2026-10-09T16:13:15+00:00	56.1%	31.6%	60.8%	35.2%	62.3%
2026-10-09T16:58:26+00:00	56.1%	31.6%	54.3%	35.2%	62.3%
2026-10-09T17:43:33+00:00	56.1%	31.6%	54.3%	35.2%	62.3%
2026-10-09T18:28:39+00:00	56.1%	31.6%	54.3%	35.2%	62.3%
2026-10-09T19:13:44+00:00	56.1%	31.6%	54.3%	35.2%	62.3%
2026-10-09T19:58:51+00:00	55.2%	31.6%	54.3%	29.5%	57.5%
2026-10-09T20:44:02+00:00	55.2%	31.6%	54.3%	29.5%	57.5%
2026-10-09T21:29:15+00:00	55.2%	31.6%	54.3%	29.5%	57.5%
2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:00	55.2%	31.6%	54.3%	29.5%	57.5%
2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:00	55.2%	30.9%	54.3%	29.5%	57.5%
2026-10-09T23:44:49+00:00	55.2%	30.9%	54.3%	29.5%	57.5%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00	55.2%	30.9%	54.3%	29.5%	57.5%
2026-10-10T01:15:15+00:00	55.2%	30.9%	54.3%	29.5%	57.5%
2026-10-10T02:00:44+00:00	56.1%	30.9%	54.3%	29.5%	57.5%
2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00	56.1%	30.9%	54.3%	29.5%	57.5%
2026-10-10T03:31:22+00:00	56.1%	30.9%	54.3%	29.5%	57.5%
2026-10-10T04:17:05+00:00	56.1%	30.9%	54.3%	29.5%	57.5%
2026-10-10T05:03:05+00:00	56.1%	30.9%	56.5%	29.5%	57.5%
2026-10-10T05:48:14+00:00	56.1%	30.9%	56.5%	29.5%	57.5%
2026-10-10T06:33:21+00:00	56.1%	30.9%	56.5%	29.5%	57.5%
2026-10-10T07:18:26+00:00	56.1%	30.9%	56.5%	29.5%	57.5%
2026-10-10T08:03:33+00:00	54.6%	30.9%	56.5%	29.5%	42.0%
2026-10-10T08:48:40+00:00	54.6%	30.9%	56.5%	29.5%	42.0%
2026-10-10T09:33:45+00:00	54.6%	30.9%	56.5%	29.5%	42.0%
2026-10-10T10:18:58+00:00	54.6%	30.9%	56.5%	29.5%	42.0%
2026-10-10T11:04:05+00:00	54.6%	26.6%	56.5%	29.5%	42.0%
2026-10-10T11:49:14+00:00	54.6%	26.6%	56.5%	29.5%	42.0%
2026-10-10T12:34:20+00:00	54.6%	26.6%	56.5%	29.5%	42.0%
2026-10-10T13:19:26+00:00	54.6%	26.6%	56.5%	29.5%	42.0%
2026-10-10T14:04:56+00:00	58.3%	26.7%	56.4%	29.5%	42.0%
2026-10-10T14:53:51+00:00	58.3%	26.7%	56.4%	29.5%	42.0%
2026-10-10T15:39:27+00:00	58.3%	26.6%	56.4%	29.5%	42.0%
2026-10-10T16:24:38+00:00	58.3%	26.6%	56.4%	29.5%	42.0%
2026-10-10T17:09:45+00:00	58.3%	26.6%	51.2%	29.5%	42.0%
2026-10-10T17:54:57+00:00	58.3%	26.6%	51.2%	29.5%	42.0%
2026-10-10T18:40:21+00:00	58.3%	26.6%	51.2%	29.5%	42.0%
2026-10-10T19:25:33+00:00	60.1%	26.6%	51.2%	29.5%	40.0%
2026-10-10T20:10:42+00:00	60.1%	26.6%	51.2%	29.5%	40.0%
2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00	60.1%	26.6%	51.2%	29.5%	40.0%
2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00	60.1%	26.6%	51.2%	29.5%	40.0%
2026-10-10T22:27:13+00:00	60.1%	26.6%	51.2%	35.2%	40.0%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	60.1%	26.6%	42.9%	35.2%	40.0%
2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00	60.1%	26.6%	42.9%	35.2%	40.0%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	60.1%	26.6%	42.9%	35.2%	40.0%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	62.7%	26.6%	42.9%	35.2%	40.0%
2026-10-11T02:14:12+00:00	62.7%	26.6%	42.9%	35.2%	40.0%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	62.7%	26.6%	42.9%	35.2%	40.0%
2026-10-11T03:44:48+00:00	62.7%	26.6%	42.9%	35.2%	40.0%
2026-10-11T04:30:44+00:00	62.7%	26.6%	42.9%	35.2%	40.0%
2026-10-11T05:16:02+00:00	62.7%	26.6%	53.5%	35.2%	40.0%
2026-10-11T06:01:15+00:00	62.7%	26.6%	53.5%	35.2%	40.0%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00	62.7%	26.6%	53.5%	35.2%	40.0%
2026-10-11T07:31:55+00:00	59.6%	26.6%	53.5%	29.6%	40.0%
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	59.6%	26.6%	53.5%	29.6%	40.0%
2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00	59.6%	26.6%	53.5%	29.6%	40.0%
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	59.6%	26.6%	53.5%	29.6%	40.0%
2026-10-11T10:33:44+00:00	59.6%	26.6%	53.5%	29.6%	40.0%
2026-10-11T11:19:48+00:00	59.6%	23.5%	51.3%	29.6%	40.0%
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	59.6%	23.5%	51.3%	29.6%	40.0%
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	59.6%	23.5%	51.3%	29.6%	40.0%
2026-10-11T13:35:44+00:00	55.8%	23.5%	51.3%	29.6%	40.0%
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	55.8%	23.9%	51.3%	29.6%	40.0%
2026-10-11T15:11:31+00:00	55.8%	23.0%	51.3%	29.6%	40.0%
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	55.8%	23.0%	51.3%	29.6%	40.0%
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	55.8%	23.0%	51.3%	29.6%	40.0%
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	55.8%	23.0%	42.3%	29.6%	40.0%
2026-10-11T18:13:09+00:00	55.8%	23.0%	42.3%	29.6%	40.0%
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	55.8%	23.0%	42.3%	29.6%	40.0%
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00	57.7%	23.0%	42.3%	25.5%	7.9%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	57.7%	23.0%	42.3%	25.5%	7.9%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	57.7%	23.0%	42.3%	25.5%	7.9%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	57.7%	23.0%	42.3%	25.5%	7.9%
2026-10-11T22:44:12+00:00	57.7%	23.0%	42.3%	25.5%	7.9%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	57.7%	19.2%	43.6%	25.5%	7.9%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	57.7%	19.2%	43.6%	25.5%	7.9%
2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00	57.7%	19.2%	43.6%	25.5%	7.9%
2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00	61.5%	19.2%	43.6%	25.5%	7.9%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	61.5%	19.2%	43.6%	25.5%	7.9%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	61.5%	19.2%	43.6%	25.5%	7.9%
2026-10-12T04:01:18+00:00	61.5%	19.2%	43.6%	25.5%	7.9%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	61.5%	19.2%	43.6%	25.5%	7.9%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	61.5%	19.2%	56.4%	25.5%	7.9%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	61.5%	19.2%	56.4%	25.5%	7.9%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	61.5%	19.2%	56.4%	25.5%	7.9%
2026-10-12T07:48:09+00:00	62.8%	19.2%	56.4%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	62.8%	19.2%	56.4%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	62.8%	19.2%	56.4%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	62.8%	19.2%	56.4%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	62.8%	19.2%	56.4%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-12T11:35:28+00:00	62.8%	19.2%	54.1%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	62.8%	18.7%	54.1%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	62.8%	18.7%	54.1%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	61.8%	18.7%	54.1%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	61.8%	18.8%	54.1%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-12T15:26:52+00:00	61.8%	18.8%	54.1%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	61.8%	18.5%	54.1%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	61.8%	18.5%	44.6%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	61.8%	18.5%	44.6%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	61.8%	18.5%	44.6%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	61.8%	18.5%	44.6%	25.1%	11.6%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	61.8%	18.5%	44.6%	18.1%	8.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	61.8%	18.5%	44.6%	18.1%	8.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	61.8%	18.5%	44.6%	18.1%	8.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	61.8%	18.5%	44.6%	18.1%	8.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00	61.8%	18.5%	47.3%	18.1%	8.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	61.8%	18.5%	47.3%	18.1%	8.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	61.8%	18.5%	47.3%	18.1%	8.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	61.8%	17.6%	47.3%	18.1%	8.6%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	69.2%	17.6%	47.3%	18.1%	8.6%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	69.2%	17.6%	47.3%	18.1%	8.6%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	69.2%	17.6%	47.3%	18.1%	8.6%
2026-10-13T04:15:44+00:00	69.2%	17.6%	47.3%	18.1%	8.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	69.2%	17.6%	71.9%	18.1%	8.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	69.2%	17.6%	71.9%	18.1%	8.6%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	69.2%	17.6%	71.9%	18.1%	8.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	69.2%	17.6%	71.9%	18.1%	8.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	72%	91.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	91.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	41%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	86.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	86.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	84.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261013-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 06 · 20:01 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗