— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
100¢
icon
98¢
wn2
80¢
rrfs
76¢
hres
66¢
aifs
63¢
ndfd
56¢
nbm
11¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F2¢
72–73°F10¢
74–75°F24¢
76–77°F31¢
78–79°F22¢
80–81°F9¢
82–83°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,303 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.518 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261016-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-12T15:26:52+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape