KBNA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

80%

66%

63%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 81.5¢Risks 81.45u

AIFSNO 18.6¢Risks 18.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +18.55u · AIFS −18.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:26:52+00:00	71.4%	100.0%	84.6%	65.5%	96.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	71.4%	100.0%	84.6%	65.5%	96.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	71.4%	100.0%	85.8%	65.5%	96.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	71.4%	100.0%	85.8%	65.5%	96.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	71.4%	100.0%	85.8%	65.5%	96.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	71.4%	100.0%	85.8%	65.5%	96.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	85.8%	44.4%	96.5%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	85.8%	44.4%	96.5%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	85.8%	44.4%	96.5%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	85.8%	44.4%	96.5%
2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	83.3%	44.4%	96.5%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	83.3%	44.4%	96.5%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	83.3%	44.4%	96.5%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	67.6%	99.9%	83.3%	44.4%	96.5%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	69.1%	99.9%	83.3%	44.4%	96.5%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	69.1%	99.9%	83.3%	44.4%	96.5%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	69.1%	99.9%	83.3%	44.4%	96.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:04+00:00	56.8%	100.0%	69.7%	38.5%	97.9%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	56.8%	100.0%	69.7%	38.5%	97.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	56.8%	100.0%	79.9%	38.5%	97.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	56.8%	100.0%	79.9%	38.5%	97.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:35+00:00	56.8%	100.0%	79.9%	38.5%	97.9%
2026-10-15T07:49:33+00:00	62.9%	100.0%	79.9%	65.7%	97.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	62.9%	100.0%	79.9%	65.7%	97.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	62.9%	100.0%	79.9%	65.7%	97.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	62.9%	100.0%	79.9%	65.7%	97.7%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	62.9%	100.0%	79.9%	65.7%	97.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:15+00:00	62.9%	100.0%	80.4%	65.7%	97.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	62.9%	100.0%	80.4%	65.7%	97.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:17+00:00	62.9%	100.0%	80.4%	65.7%	97.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	62.9%	100.0%	79.5%	65.7%	97.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	62.9%	100.0%	79.5%	65.7%	97.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	89.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	98%	81.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	76.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	76.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	75.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
National Blend	11%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261016-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗