— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
78¢
ndfd
53¢
hres
49¢
nbm
39¢
icon
33¢
aifs
11¢
wn2
9¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F2¢
58–59°F10¢
60–61°F23¢
62–63°F30¢
64–65°F23¢
66–67°F10¢
68–69°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,254 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.694 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261017-TMAX-GE69 · opened 2026-10-11T03:44:49+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape