KBNA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

49%

33%

11%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 43.2¢Risks 43.25u

WN2NO 56.8¢Risks 56.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +56.75u · WN2 −56.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T03:44:49+00:00	12.5%	87.7%	18.1%	62.4%	33.1%
2026-10-11T04:30:44+00:00	12.5%	87.7%	18.1%	62.4%	33.1%
2026-10-11T05:16:02+00:00	12.5%	87.7%	32.8%	62.4%	33.1%
2026-10-11T06:01:15+00:00	12.5%	87.7%	32.8%	62.4%	33.1%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00	12.5%	87.7%	32.8%	62.4%	33.1%
2026-10-11T07:31:55+00:00	7.8%	87.7%	32.8%	48.8%	33.1%
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	7.8%	87.7%	32.8%	48.8%	33.1%
2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00	7.8%	87.7%	32.8%	48.8%	33.1%
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	7.8%	87.7%	32.8%	48.8%	33.1%
2026-10-11T10:33:45+00:00	7.8%	87.7%	32.8%	48.8%	33.1%
2026-10-11T11:19:48+00:00	7.8%	77.7%	8.9%	48.8%	33.1%
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	7.8%	77.7%	8.9%	48.8%	33.1%
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	7.8%	77.7%	8.9%	48.8%	33.1%
2026-10-11T13:35:44+00:00	11.3%	77.7%	8.9%	48.8%	33.1%
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	11.0%	77.5%	9.0%	48.8%	33.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	78%	74.2°F	7.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	68.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
National Blend	39%	66.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
ICON	33%	64.2°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	62.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	62.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261017-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 11 · 03:44 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 69°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗