— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
93¢
wn2
83¢
aifs
78¢
hres
73¢
nbm
67¢
icon
64¢
ndfd
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F1¢
72–73°F7¢
74–75°F19¢
76–77°F30¢
78–79°F26¢
80–81°F12¢
82–83°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261021-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-15T15:34:00+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape