KBNA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

83%

78%

73%

64%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 78.6¢Risks 78.60u

ICONNO 21.4¢Risks 21.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +21.40u · ICON −21.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:00+00:00	79.3%	67.8%	81.0%	67.0%	88.2%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	79.3%	67.8%	81.0%	67.0%	88.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	79.3%	67.8%	83.8%	67.0%	88.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	79.3%	67.8%	83.8%	67.0%	88.2%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	79.3%	67.8%	83.8%	67.0%	88.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	79.3%	67.8%	83.8%	67.0%	88.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	79.3%	67.8%	83.8%	69.1%	86.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	79.3%	67.8%	83.8%	69.1%	86.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	79.3%	67.8%	83.8%	69.1%	86.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	79.3%	67.8%	83.8%	69.1%	86.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	79.3%	71.3%	79.2%	69.1%	86.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	79.3%	71.3%	79.2%	69.1%	86.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	79.3%	71.3%	79.2%	69.1%	86.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	79.8%	71.3%	79.2%	69.1%	86.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	79.8%	71.3%	79.2%	69.1%	86.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	79.8%	71.3%	79.2%	69.1%	86.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	79.8%	71.3%	79.2%	69.1%	86.7%
2026-10-17T04:41:34+00:00	83.3%	87.5%	80.9%	69.2%	70.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	83.3%	87.5%	83.5%	69.2%	70.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	83.3%	87.5%	83.5%	69.2%	70.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	83.3%	87.5%	83.5%	69.2%	70.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:18+00:00	82.0%	87.5%	83.5%	73.2%	64.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	82.0%	87.5%	83.5%	73.2%	64.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:34+00:00	82.0%	87.5%	83.5%	73.2%	64.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	82.0%	87.5%	83.5%	73.2%	64.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	82.0%	87.5%	83.5%	73.2%	64.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	82.0%	92.8%	83.3%	73.2%	64.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	82.0%	92.8%	83.3%	73.2%	64.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	82.0%	92.8%	83.3%	73.2%	64.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	78.4%	92.8%	83.3%	73.2%	64.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	78.4%	92.8%	83.3%	73.2%	64.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	78.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	78.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	78.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	77.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	76.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	64%	76.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗