— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
70¢
aifs
66¢
eps
59¢
ndfd
56¢
rrfs
51¢
hres
51¢
nbm
41¢
icon
37¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F2¢
72–73°F8¢
74–75°F21¢
76–77°F30¢
78–79°F24¢
80–81°F11¢
82–83°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261022-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-15T11:39:15+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape