KBNA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

66%

59%

51%

37%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.2¢Risks 53.25u

ICONNO 46.8¢Risks 46.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.75u · ICON −46.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T11:39:15+00:00	90.3%	70.2%	79.9%	54.4%	37.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	90.3%	65.5%	79.9%	54.4%	37.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:17+00:00	90.3%	65.5%	79.9%	54.4%	37.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	75.9%	65.5%	79.6%	54.3%	37.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	75.9%	65.5%	79.6%	54.3%	37.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:02+00:00	75.9%	65.1%	79.6%	54.3%	37.4%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	75.9%	65.1%	79.6%	54.3%	37.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	75.9%	65.1%	77.9%	54.3%	37.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	75.9%	65.1%	77.9%	54.3%	37.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	75.9%	65.1%	77.9%	54.3%	37.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	75.9%	65.1%	77.9%	54.3%	37.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	75.9%	65.1%	77.9%	56.8%	80.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	75.9%	65.1%	77.9%	56.8%	80.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	75.9%	65.1%	77.9%	56.8%	80.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	75.9%	65.1%	77.9%	56.8%	80.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	75.9%	68.2%	77.3%	56.8%	80.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	75.8%	68.2%	77.3%	56.8%	80.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	75.8%	68.2%	77.3%	56.8%	80.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	71.8%	68.2%	77.3%	56.8%	80.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	71.8%	68.2%	77.3%	56.8%	80.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	71.8%	68.2%	77.3%	56.8%	80.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	71.8%	68.2%	77.3%	56.8%	80.4%
2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00	49.2%	72.1%	62.4%	42.5%	40.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	49.2%	72.1%	60.6%	42.5%	40.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	49.2%	72.1%	60.6%	42.5%	40.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	49.2%	72.1%	60.6%	42.5%	40.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	49.2%	72.1%	60.6%	42.5%	40.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:09+00:00	50.0%	72.1%	60.6%	42.9%	39.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	50.0%	72.1%	60.6%	42.9%	39.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	50.0%	72.1%	60.6%	42.9%	39.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	50.0%	72.1%	60.6%	42.9%	39.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00	50.0%	66.6%	57.4%	42.9%	39.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	50.0%	66.6%	57.4%	42.9%	39.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	50.0%	66.6%	57.4%	42.9%	39.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	50.0%	66.6%	57.4%	42.9%	39.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	46.5%	66.6%	57.4%	42.9%	39.5%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	46.5%	66.6%	57.4%	42.9%	39.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	46.5%	63.5%	57.4%	42.9%	39.5%
2026-10-18T16:26:56+00:00	46.5%	63.5%	57.4%	42.9%	39.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	46.5%	63.5%	53.2%	42.9%	39.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:22+00:00	46.5%	63.5%	53.2%	42.9%	39.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	46.5%	63.5%	53.2%	42.9%	39.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	48.3%	63.5%	53.2%	35.2%	45.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	48.3%	63.5%	53.2%	35.2%	45.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	48.3%	63.5%	53.2%	35.2%	45.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	48.3%	63.5%	53.2%	35.2%	45.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	48.3%	63.5%	53.2%	35.2%	45.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	48.3%	55.5%	46.8%	35.2%	45.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	48.3%	55.5%	46.8%	35.2%	45.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	48.3%	55.5%	46.8%	35.2%	45.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:33+00:00	50.0%	55.5%	46.8%	35.2%	45.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	50.0%	55.5%	46.8%	35.2%	45.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	50.0%	55.5%	46.8%	35.2%	45.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	50.0%	55.5%	46.8%	35.2%	45.1%
2026-10-20T04:04:21+00:00	63.8%	56.6%	55.9%	45.5%	41.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	63.8%	56.6%	55.9%	45.5%	41.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	63.8%	56.6%	71.4%	45.5%	41.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	63.8%	56.6%	71.4%	45.5%	41.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	63.8%	56.6%	71.4%	45.5%	41.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	66.3%	56.6%	71.4%	45.5%	36.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	66.3%	56.6%	71.4%	45.5%	36.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	66.3%	56.6%	71.4%	45.5%	36.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	66.3%	56.6%	71.4%	45.5%	36.8%
2026-10-20T10:53:29+00:00	66.3%	59.4%	69.7%	51.0%	36.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	66.3%	59.4%	69.7%	51.0%	36.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	66.3%	59.4%	69.7%	51.0%	36.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	66.3%	59.4%	69.7%	51.0%	36.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	70%	78.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	78.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	77.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	76.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	37%	75.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗