— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
56¢
ndfd
53¢
wn2
37¢
aifs
34¢
eps
26¢
icon
25¢
hres
23¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F2¢
72–73°F9¢
74–75°F21¢
76–77°F29¢
78–79°F23¢
80–81°F11¢
82–83°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261023-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-17T04:41:34+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape