KBNA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

34%

26%

25%

23%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 30.1¢Risks 15.07u

HRESNO 69.8¢Risks 34.92u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.92u · HRES −34.92u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:34+00:00	41.7%	37.3%	59.3%	43.2%	48.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	41.7%	37.3%	57.0%	43.2%	48.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	41.7%	37.3%	57.0%	43.2%	48.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	41.7%	37.3%	57.0%	43.2%	48.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:18+00:00	35.6%	37.3%	57.0%	29.8%	35.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	35.6%	37.3%	57.0%	29.8%	35.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:34+00:00	35.6%	37.3%	57.0%	29.8%	35.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	35.6%	37.3%	57.0%	29.8%	35.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	35.6%	37.3%	57.0%	29.8%	35.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	35.6%	29.4%	49.1%	29.8%	35.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	35.6%	29.4%	49.1%	29.8%	35.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	35.6%	29.4%	49.1%	29.8%	35.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	37.0%	29.4%	49.1%	30.0%	35.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	37.0%	29.5%	49.1%	29.8%	35.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:35+00:00	37.0%	29.9%	49.1%	29.8%	35.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	37.0%	29.9%	49.1%	29.8%	35.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	37.0%	29.9%	48.3%	29.8%	35.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	37.0%	29.9%	48.3%	29.8%	35.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	37.0%	29.9%	48.3%	29.8%	35.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	37.0%	29.9%	48.3%	29.8%	35.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	29.0%	29.9%	48.3%	22.9%	24.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	29.0%	29.9%	48.3%	22.9%	24.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	29.0%	29.9%	48.3%	22.9%	24.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	29.0%	29.9%	48.3%	22.9%	24.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	29.0%	26.5%	37.4%	22.9%	24.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	29.0%	26.5%	37.4%	22.9%	24.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	29.0%	26.5%	37.4%	22.9%	24.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	29.0%	26.5%	37.4%	22.9%	24.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	34.2%	26.5%	37.4%	22.9%	24.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	34.2%	26.5%	37.4%	22.9%	24.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	34.2%	26.5%	37.4%	22.9%	24.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	78.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	77.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	77.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	74.6°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	74.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗