— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
45¢
aifs
38¢
icon
26¢
hres
25¢
ndfd
22¢
nbm
15¢
eps
14¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F2¢
72–73°F7¢
74–75°F15¢
76–77°F22¢
78–79°F23¢
80–81°F17¢
82–83°F9¢
84–85°F3¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261024-TMAX-GE81 · opened 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape