KBNA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST21%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

38%

26%

25%

14%

Consensus

21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 29.1¢Risks 29.10u

EPSNO 70.9¢Risks 70.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +70.90u · EPS −70.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	33.8%	21.3%	54.7%	33.2%	12.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	33.8%	21.3%	54.7%	33.2%	12.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	33.8%	21.3%	54.7%	33.2%	12.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	38.4%	21.3%	54.7%	33.2%	12.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	38.4%	21.3%	54.7%	33.2%	12.6%
2026-10-17T15:24:35+00:00	38.4%	21.3%	54.7%	33.2%	12.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	38.4%	21.3%	54.7%	33.2%	12.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	38.4%	21.3%	51.6%	33.2%	12.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	38.4%	21.3%	51.6%	33.2%	12.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	38.4%	21.3%	51.6%	33.2%	12.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	38.4%	21.3%	51.6%	33.2%	12.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	38.4%	21.3%	51.6%	27.3%	37.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	38.4%	21.3%	51.6%	27.3%	37.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	38.4%	21.3%	51.6%	27.3%	37.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	38.4%	21.3%	51.6%	27.3%	37.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	38.4%	19.1%	39.2%	27.3%	37.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	38.4%	19.1%	39.2%	27.3%	37.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	38.4%	19.1%	39.2%	27.3%	37.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	38.4%	19.1%	39.2%	27.3%	37.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	38.4%	19.1%	39.2%	27.3%	37.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	38.4%	19.1%	39.2%	27.3%	37.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	38.4%	19.1%	39.2%	27.3%	37.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:42+00:00	37.7%	14.8%	40.7%	27.2%	46.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	37.7%	14.0%	40.7%	27.2%	46.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:56+00:00	37.7%	14.0%	40.7%	27.2%	46.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	37.7%	14.0%	39.0%	27.2%	46.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:22+00:00	37.7%	14.0%	39.0%	27.2%	46.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	37.7%	14.0%	39.0%	27.2%	46.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	33.5%	14.0%	39.0%	20.7%	47.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	33.5%	14.0%	39.0%	20.7%	47.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	33.5%	14.0%	39.0%	20.7%	47.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	33.5%	14.0%	39.0%	20.7%	47.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	33.5%	14.0%	39.0%	20.7%	47.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	33.5%	11.2%	39.0%	20.7%	47.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	33.5%	11.2%	39.0%	20.7%	47.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	33.5%	11.2%	39.0%	20.7%	47.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:33+00:00	34.2%	11.2%	39.0%	20.7%	47.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	34.2%	11.2%	39.0%	20.7%	47.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	34.2%	11.2%	39.0%	20.7%	47.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	34.2%	11.2%	39.0%	20.7%	47.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:36+00:00	34.2%	11.2%	39.0%	20.7%	47.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	34.2%	11.2%	39.9%	20.7%	47.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	34.2%	11.2%	39.9%	20.7%	47.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	34.2%	11.2%	39.9%	20.7%	47.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:00+00:00	32.8%	11.2%	39.9%	27.9%	37.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	32.8%	11.2%	39.9%	27.9%	37.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	32.8%	11.2%	39.9%	27.9%	37.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	32.8%	11.2%	39.9%	27.9%	37.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:00	32.8%	11.2%	39.9%	27.9%	37.2%
2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00	32.8%	14.4%	36.7%	27.9%	37.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	32.8%	14.4%	36.7%	27.9%	37.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	32.8%	14.4%	36.7%	27.9%	37.2%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	28.6%	14.4%	36.7%	27.9%	37.2%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	28.5%	14.4%	36.7%	27.8%	37.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:25+00:00	28.5%	14.4%	36.7%	27.8%	37.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	28.5%	14.4%	36.7%	27.8%	37.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	28.5%	14.4%	36.7%	27.8%	37.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:29+00:00	28.5%	14.4%	34.0%	27.8%	37.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	28.5%	14.4%	34.0%	27.8%	37.2%
2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00	28.5%	14.4%	34.0%	27.8%	37.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00	30.6%	14.4%	34.0%	18.0%	28.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	30.6%	14.4%	34.0%	18.0%	28.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	30.6%	14.4%	34.0%	18.0%	28.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00	30.6%	14.4%	34.0%	18.0%	28.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:14+00:00	30.6%	14.4%	34.0%	18.0%	28.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	30.6%	13.8%	37.6%	18.0%	28.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	30.6%	13.8%	37.6%	18.0%	28.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	30.6%	13.8%	37.6%	18.0%	28.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00	34.3%	13.8%	37.6%	18.0%	28.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	34.3%	13.8%	37.6%	18.0%	28.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	34.3%	13.8%	37.6%	18.0%	28.9%
2026-10-20T04:04:21+00:00	34.3%	13.8%	37.6%	18.0%	28.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	34.3%	13.8%	37.6%	18.0%	28.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	34.3%	13.8%	44.2%	18.0%	28.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	34.3%	13.8%	44.2%	18.0%	28.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	34.3%	13.8%	44.2%	18.0%	28.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	38.0%	13.8%	44.2%	18.0%	26.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	38.0%	13.8%	44.2%	18.0%	26.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	38.0%	13.8%	44.2%	18.0%	26.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	38.0%	13.8%	44.2%	18.0%	26.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:29+00:00	38.0%	13.5%	44.7%	24.8%	26.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	38.0%	13.5%	44.7%	24.8%	26.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	38.0%	13.5%	44.7%	24.8%	26.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	38.0%	13.5%	44.7%	24.8%	26.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	45%	80.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	79.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	26%	77.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	77.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	77.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261024-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 81°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗