— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
56¢
wn2
44¢
aifs
41¢
eps
32¢
hres
26¢
icon
19¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F4¢
72–73°F10¢
74–75°F18¢
76–77°F22¢
78–79°F21¢
80–81°F14¢
82–83°F7¢
84–85°F2¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBNA-20261025-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-18T08:01:09+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape